The Italian banking sector is at the center of the new 2026 economic package, which provides for an estimated overall impact of 10 billion euros in three years. A figure only slightly lower than the 11 billion previously indicated in the budget plan, but which confirms the government’s desire to keep the system of fiscal measures for banks and insurance companies unchanged.
The text, already approved by the State General Accounting Office and now being examined by Parliament, reiterates the main provisions initially announced. The changes compared to the first draft are minimal and do not change the substance of the provision, which provides for a stable contribution to the public budget by the credit sector.
The main measures: IRAP and reduced deductions
The central point of the maneuver is the increase in IRAP for banks and insurance companies. The rate passes:
- from 4.65% to 6.65% for banks;
- from 5.90% to 7.90% for insurance.
The measure will produce an estimated revenue of 4.11 billion euros in 2026, provided that credit institutions “free up” part of the capital reserves set aside in recent years, for a revenue of approximately 1.65 billion. In 2027 the revenue will remain almost unchanged, before falling to 1.8 billion in 2028.
There are also restrictions on the tax deductibility of some negative components, including loan write-downs and goodwill. In particular, the deductibility of goodwill will reduce from 20.58% to 8.22% in 2027, limiting the tax advantages for banks.
The tax package is not configured as a one-off extraordinary tax, but as a permanent restructuring of the fiscal and regulatory burden on the banking and insurance system.
The reactions of the banking sector
The president of the ABI, Antonio Patuelli, expressed a prudent but decisive position, asking for “greater respect” for the role of banks in the national economic system.
“Banks must do their work with a total climate of serenity”
he declared in his speech at the Leasing Exhibition, underlining that the association will await the parliamentary discussion before expressing official assessments.
According to Patuelli, the banking sector cannot be considered a “horn of fortune” from which to draw resources, recalling that interest margins are already declining in the first half of 2025 and that commissions are also showing signs of slowing down. Even in the presence of high profits – such as the 10.5 billion net announced by Unicredit for the current year – the institutions find themselves operating in a context of growing economic uncertainty.
Market conditions and future risks
The sector has to deal with a complex economic scenario. According to the Abi-Cerved outlook 2025-2027, the default rate of companies will rise from 2.6% in 2024 to 3% in 2026, signaling an increase in non-performing loans. The Bank of Italy also forecasts GDP growth limited to 0.6% for 2025 and 2026, in the face of weak domestic demand and a decline in industrial profitability.
Added to these critical issues are the US duties on Italian exports, which are already impacting manufacturing companies, with indirect effects on the request for financing. A context that increases the prudence of the banking world, committed to guaranteeing liquidity and credit to the real economy but with smaller margins.
