Second Goldman Sachs By mid -2025, fuel prices could undergo a significant drop, due to various factors linked mainly to the decisions of the OPEC+ concerning the production of crude oil and the possible global recession.
In the world of energy, in fact, the forecasts on the price of oil are a central theme for millions of consumers, businesses and governments, since it affects the trend of petrol and diesel prices together with other factors, including political decisions, market dynamics and global forecasts on the future of energy resources.
OPEC+ increases production
Goldman Sachs, one of the main global investment banks, on May 6, 2025 forecast relating to the price of oil for the second half of 2025, after the decisions of the OPEC+ regarding the increase in crude oil production.
The organization of the oil exporting countries and its allies have in fact decided to increase production to try to stabilize the markets and respond to global question Which, despite the strong growth in emerging markets, is showing signs of slowing down.
This intervention, which will begin to influence the markets in the coming months, could reduce oil prices, leading to a consequent descent of petrol and diesel prices.
The effects on international markets
The prediction of Goldman Sachs indicates that the price of the Brent, one of the main references for the global market, could go down to an average of 60 dollars per barrel in 2025, with an even greater descent for the intermediary West Texas (WTI), which could go down to 56 dollars a barrel.
Such a significant drop, equal to about 2-3 dollars compared to previous estimates, is directly related to the Opec+ decision to accelerate the increase in oil production.
Because fuel prices drop
But because the increase in production by OPEC+ could lead to one price reduction? The answer lies in the basic economic principle of supply and demand: when the oil offer increases, in the absence of an equivalent increase in demand, prices tend to decrease.
In addition, according to experts, there is another factor that weighs on the price of oil and that could influence the costs of fuels in a more marked way, namely: the possibility of a global recession.
Goldman Sachs stressed that global economic uncertainty, in fact, risks further slowing down the demand for energy. The recession, or in any case a significant slowdown in global economies, would lead to a reduction in demand for oil and, consequently to a lowering of prices.
The impact on the price of fuels in Italy
Goldman Sachs’ forecasts, if confirmed, will have a direct impact on fuel prices. In Italy, as in many other countries, the price of petrol and diesel is closely linked to the trend of the international oil price.
With a Brent price that stands around 60 dollars a barrel, the pump prices are expected to start off starting from Second half of 2025.
If the downward trend continues, the drop in fuel prices could get directly affecting motorists’s wallet, with positive effects also for the transport sector, which could benefit from lower operating costs.
In addition, a reduction in fuel costs could alleviate the pressure inflationary that weighs on families, freeing resources for other consumption.
This phenomenon will have implications not only for consumers, but also for the whole sector energy and therefore on the prices of gas and electricity, and for the global economy, which could benefit from the greater availability of energy at more low prices.
