Drought and agriculture: the map of the regions most at risk

The exceptional heat wave that is affecting much of Italy, accompanied by increasingly scarce rainfall, is putting pressure on the country’s crops, livestock and water resources. According to the new “thirst map” developed by Coldiretti, climate change is no longer a future risk, but a widespread emergency throughout the country, with already tangible and visible consequences on harvests, prices and availability of food products, especially in some regions.

The regions most affected by heat and drought

The regions of the Center and North are those most in difficulty due to the water and environmental crisis. In Piedmont, after a winter characterized by heavy snowfall, the rapid increase in temperatures and the drastic decrease in rainfall have dried up the available reserves. For this reason, the Drought SOS was launched.

Among the productions at risk in the region are:

  • rice;
  • corn;
  • fruit and vegetables;
  • hazelnut trees;
  • meadows and pastures.

Losses are already estimated at between 30% and 40%, but could rise to 70-80% if rainfall continues to fail.

Lombardy also presents a very critical scenario. In Lomellina, water scarcity directly threatens rice fields, while in the Milan area there is fear of reliving the dramatic summer of 2022, when farmers had to choose which fields to save.

Corn is already showing clear signs of suffering with early chopping in the provinces of:

  • Milan;
  • Cremona;
  • Mantua.

Tomatoes, on the other hand, are seeing the first effects, with early varieties losing around 10%, while medium-late varieties could achieve reductions of 40%. Also of concern are the vineyards, with an early harvest expected, and the farms, where milk production has already decreased between 10% and 20%.

Even in Veneto, high temperatures are accelerating the maturation of crops. In many plots we observe panicles without grain due to the lack of fertilization caused by the extreme heat. This phenomenon represents a problem not only for cereal producers, but also for livestock farms, which use corn as a fundamental component of animal feed.

In Trentino, however, farms are recording a decline in milk production, while the combination of heat and drought has brought forward the vegetative cycles and, in the most serious cases, caused crop growth to stop.

In Emilia-Romagna, in the areas served by the Emiliano Romagnolo Canal, the availability of water still allows the damage to be limited, but irrigation and energy costs have increased and in the Bologna area the following is already produced:

  • minus 30% corn, sorghum and beetroot;
  • minus 40% for soybeans;
  • minus 20% for onions.

Vineyards, apricots and plums in hilly areas are also suffering, and in the Reggio Emilia area damage has been reported to watermelons grown in greenhouses and to hay intended for breeding.

Difficulties are also widespread in Central Italy

The emergency also involves a large part of the Centre. For example, in Tuscany:

  • the heat has already caused a 20% reduction in horticultural production in the southern and coastal areas;
  • the harvest promises to be early;
  • the flowering of chestnut trees is compromised;
  • milk production in stables records decreases of between 20% and 30%.

In Lazio, livestock farms report losses of up to three liters of milk per animal per day, while in some areas the corn even risks not reaching harvest. Furthermore, the costs necessary to keep the animals in acceptable conditions, through ventilation and cooling systems in the stables, are increasing.

Umbria, Abruzzo and Marche are also carefully monitoring meteorological developments.

The situation in the North West and North East of the country

The situation is not the best in the rest of Italy either:

  • in Liguria, olive and fruit drop phenomena are observed and, in areas without irrigation, losses could reach 20-30%;
  • Valle d’Aosta is recording rainfall 25% lower than the seasonal average and a decrease in fodder production of between 20% and 30%;
  • in Friuli Venezia Giulia the situation is constantly monitored, waiting to understand whether the next few weeks will bring sufficient rainfall to alleviate water stress.

Production at risk in the South

In the South the picture appears, at least for now, less critical, but there is no shortage of concerns, especially in Sicily, where the record heat has already caused the first damage to horticultural crops, with problems reported especially for watermelons in the Trapani area, while olive groves and citrus groves are starting to show signs of suffering.

In Calabria the situation remains relatively stable, although the first phenomena of fruit drop have appeared on olive and citrus trees, while in Puglia the critical issues mainly concern livestock farming.

In the rest of Italy, as in Sardinia, Basilicata and Campania, the crops – at the moment – show good stability, but the monitoring of climate evolution continues to be monitored, above all because if there is one thing that this environmental emergency has taught us it is that, really, at any moment the situation could worsen anywhere.