Equita is positive on stock markets in 2025:

Campari, Enel, FinecoBank, Iveco and Unicredit. These are the “Best Picks 2025” of Equita, an important Italian investment bank, which outlines its vision for the year that has just begun, providing important indications on the various sectors. Furthermore, it identified the “Best Picks 2025” also among the mid-caps, choosing Antares Vision, Fiera Milano, Lottomatica, Moltiply, Technogym and Technoprobe.

The general vision

In general, the broker says it enters 2025 with “a slightly positive view on equity markets”, because the macro context remains favorable and the forecast is for a global economy at the same levels as in 2024 (around +3%), with important divergences in the different areas (USA +2.5%, EU +0.8% , China +4%) and less synchronized central banks. Furthermore, corporate earnings are expected to grow (median 2025 EPS growth +10% for MSCI USA and +9.5% for MSCI EU), and valuations, outside the USA and some specific sectors, are generally not high.

More specifically, Equita expects lower interest rates, especially in Europe, to favor a recovery in industrial production and stimulate consumer demand, contributing to more robust growth in the EU economy. Political uncertainty in Europe remains high, but the expectation is for a significant improvement during 2025 (the elections in Germany and the change of leadership increase the possibility of constructive reforms and new stimulus to the economy).

Positioning on the markets

It is also noted that European indices are currently trading at significantly lower valuations than US indices (Stoxx600 P/E 2025E = 13x, FTSE Italia All-share 10x, vs. S&P500 22x, S&P400 mid-cap 17.5x, Russell2000 17.4x) and that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine can represent a further upside for Europe. Unlike the US, investor positioning on the EU stock market is decidedly more cautious, and the risk associated with potential tariffs largely incorporated into prices (the STOXX600 index has underperformed by more than 5 points since the beginning of September, the dollar has appreciated by 5%).

However, economic growth in Europeparticularly in the manufacturing sector, remains weak, and the signals coming from China are not reassuring at the moment. High valuations and investor positioning in the US market, combined with recent interest rate pressures, could cause corrections in the short term.

The sectors

At a sectoral level, Equita is overall overweight in financials, ssupported by fundamentals expected to be solid also in 2025, acceleration of fee growth which will offset the decline in NII, and a consolidation process. Among the favorite stocks FinecoBank, Banca Mediolanum, Mediobanca, while among the traditional banks our preference is for Unicredit, BPER, Intesa and Credem. In the Utilities sector we are neutral, where our favorites are Enel and A2A. In the Energy sector it is slightly overweight, with a preference for stocks with idiosyncratic elements (Tenaris, Maire) or characterized by a particularly attractive remuneration (ENI), at the same time with an optionality from the potential benefits of the Chinese expansionary policy.

And the best Italian companies

It remains neutral on the luxury sector, which trades at 22x P/E 2025, slightly below historical averages and with expectations of a return to growth in 2025, but an unbalanced growth in 2H and strongly linked to the improvement of the macro picture. In the sector, our preference for quality names with company-specific growth drivers and reasonable valuations, such as Prada and Moncler, was confirmed.

In the industrial sector it maintains a selective approach favoring stocks that have exposure to infrastructure investments especially in the USA (Buzzi, Webuild) or characterized by greater resilience (Interpump, Iveco, Pirelli, Brembo, Danieli Risp.). It has a neutral stance on technology, where it confirms Reply and added Technoprobe, increasing exposure to the global AI/Data Center investment trend, while maintaining exposure to the infrastructure sector through TIM, Inwit and ENAV, as it believes they can benefit from a declining interest rate environment and/or offer some speculative appeal. Finally, it is overweight in the Healthcare sector (Amplifon, DiaSorin, Recordati).