There Commercial policy of Trump is creating great uncertainty and risks feeding a New growth of inflationwith negative effects on the economy and direct impacts on Monetary policy of the Fed. Beyond this, the real economy still seems to enjoy a discreet state of health and the increase in investments for the AI He still manages to attract the interest of investors. An analysis of Moneyfam takes stock of these and other factors and highlights that the better strategy remains prudence.
Fed fears slowing growth and inflation increase
The risk that commercial policy can generate one dangerous combination of slowing down growth and increased inflation It also emerges from the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, struggling with the double maintenance mandate of prices under control and maximization of employment levels.
But Economy is confirmed as resilient
At the moment, however, the unemployment rate still content It seems to induce policymaker to maintain theirs prudent approachbefore evaluating any cuts in interest rates. A vision shared by the markets, which today are expected Only two cuts of 25 points rates base each of the year.
On the growth front, the data on the Usa GDP of the first quarter 2025 were revised slightly up: The initial estimate indicated a contraction of 0.3%, while the review reduced the drop to -0.2%. To catalyze attention, however, was the slowdown in the internal demand, still robust but lower than expected; In fact, in fact, the data indicated a growth of 3% of the so -called “real final sales” (consumption and private investments), then reduced to +2.5%.
To the powerful growth engine
The publication of Results in strong growth by Nvidiawhich reported a Outlook more than solid For the demand for chips and recalled how the expenditure for artificial intelligence remains an important engine for the economy. Despite the restrictions on exports to China and the high concentration of chip sales on a limited number of large customers, the perspectives of the sector they seem, at least for now, positive. It is likely that, sooner or later, the big tech want to see tangible returns on their investments in IA, but for the moment they seem to consider it an inevitable expense.
Still wins uncertainty and prudence
In conclusion, i data do not reflect still fully The effect of the new ratesbut the macroeconomic scenario remains uncertain: the duties policy has impactful on consumers’ trust and complicated the work of the Fed, while the latest data on GDPs suggest that the economy, while remaining resilient, is less solid than expected.
At the same time, artificial intelligence continues to represent a powerful engine For US lists And, although the expectations are already high, for now we should still find ourselves in the initial stages of maturation in the sector.
Because of this, from the point of view of the walletsMoneyfarm maintains a prudent approach In light of the winds against macro, but, beyond duties and inflation, there is an awareness of the existence of long -term trend capable of influencing markets and global economy.
