The big name of civil aviation Airbus provides for a doubling of aerial fleets over the next 20 yearsto almost 50,000 large and small size planes, confirming a great optimism about the future of the commercial aviation sector, which will be driven by an increase in well -being, population, travel and trade. And at the same time, the growth of travel will contribute to the growth of GDP and employment. It is the picture traced byAirbus Global Market Forecast 2025entitled “People and commerce driving Air Traffic Growth“.
A long -expressed market
Despite the short -term uncertainties, linked to geopolitical and commercial tensions, Airbus provides for the doubling of the fleets at 2044 global in service, from the current 24,730 at 49,210 aircraft expected.
This growth will require the Delivery of about 43,400 new aircraft passengers and cargo in the next 20 years. About 44% of these new deliveries (18,930) will replace models of the previous generation, less efficient in terms of fuel consumption, the others will increase the fleets. About 34,250 will be single corridor, 9,170 will be Widebody.
The factors that will raise growth
The forecast is formulated on the expectation
- of a Air transport growth (+3.6% the expected growth of passenger traffic in the medium-long term)
- of a Increase in trade (+2.6%)
- of the GDP (+2.5% per year)
- of the population World (+1.2 billion of more expected people).
Among the other factors that will affect the growth of air traffic are noted
- the expansion of the middle class (1.5 billion people will become part of the middle class globally by 2044), which is the most inclined to travel by plane
- the‘urbanization (1.3 billion people will live in urban centers by 2044 by requesting efficient air connections),
- greater economic accessibility of air transport.
India and Asia will take the sector
Airbus estimates that, to tow the annual growth of the traffic flow, they will be India (+8.9%), the emerging economies of Asia, in particular the China (+8.5%) and the Middle East (+5.3%). This panorama of evolving traffic underlines the growing importance of versatile and efficient aircraft to serve a wide range of routes and markets.
In this regard, the largest European aircraft manufacturer talks about increasingly sustainable fleetswhich allow you to consume less energy and use decarbonized energylike SaF (fuel for sustainable aviation), hydrogen and hybrids. All Airbus aircraft currently produced have a 50% SAF capacity, which will rise 100% by 2030.
Positive effects on growth and employment
The disruptive growth of fleets and air traffic will also have positive effects on the economy. It is estimated a contribution of 3.9% of global GDP and the creation of Over 86.5 million new jobs. A doubling of the global fleet on duty, in fact, will also generate the need for new drivers, technicians, cabin staff and will create career opportunities in the entire aviation ecosystem. Enormous opportunities also in the maintenance of aircraft and in operational efficiency, as part of the push to the sustainability of the sector.
