The suffering of the Ferrari stock continues, which after the crash of October 9th continued its declining phase on the stock market even at the opening of the new week, Monday the 13th.
The first intraday loss of more than 15% had wiped out billions in capitalization. Ferrari attempted a timid rebound in the session on Friday 10 October, closing around 354 euros on the day following the presentation of the new industrial plan to 2030. The situation in the middle of the morning of Monday 13 October: Ferrari shares at 339.90 euros.
Ferrari’s splash on the stock market
Nothing to be done: the Ferrari plan, although consistent with the long-term ambitions of the Cavallino, has left the market with more doubts than certainties.
The market wanted more and instead the new route outlined by the CEO Benedetto Vigna and the CFO Antonio Picca Piccon foresees 2030 revenues of around 9 billion euros and an Ebitda of at least 3.6 billion (with a margin above 40%), with an average growth in revenues of around 5% per year.
However, these figures are lower than consensus expectations. Furthermore, Ferrari has reduced the share of fully electric cars expected by 2030 from 40% to 20%, choosing a more gradual transition towards electric and leaving an important portion of the range to combustion engines and hybrids. These choices were perceived as excessively conservative by operators.
All this, combined with the collapse of Ferrari just two and a half months ago (end of July) gives rise to more than one concern.
Before the event, Ferrari was traveling on very high multiples (P/E estimated to be high compared to the sector), reflecting growth expectations and pricing power of the brand. In practice, after the plunge on Thursday 31 July (from 346.10 euros to 385.30 euros), there was optimism regarding Ferrari’s ability to recover on the stock market.
Today the risk that Ferrari could end up like Maserati is absolutely unlikely, but for the Prancing Horse board, straightening the bar remains imperative.
Downgrades are triggered on the target price of Ferrari shares
Ferrari’s suffering on the stock market triggered a series of downgrades in relation to the target price:
- Equita sets a target price of 380 euros. Equita sees consistency in the plan but underlines that the consensus will have to scale back expectations, i.e. sales, Ebitda, EPS and cumulative FCF lower than the consensus;
- Banca Akros sees a target of 350 euros;
- Jefferies maintains a more cautious reading, with a target of 420 euros;
- Habc maintains Buy but cuts the target to 415 euros, from 470 euros. It is argued that the plan is conservative but that the fundamentals remain solid;
- Oddo Bhf reduces the target price from 470 euros to 430 euros. The plan is assessed as prudent and operational outperformance over time is considered possible;
- the Investing portal aims for an average 12-month target price for Ferrari of 416.95 euros with an estimated maximum of 485.35 euros and an estimated minimum of 340 euros.
Investing in Ferrari shares today, is it worth it yes or no?
Here we will not invite users to invest in Ferrari, just as we will not invite them to avoid the stock. After providing the initial framework, below is some information so that everyone can draw their own conclusions.
The elements to monitor in the coming weeks are different, and each can quickly change Ferrari’s target price. In the coming months, the market will pay attention to four key factors in particular.
The first is the quarterly reporting season: some concrete signals on the direction of profitability are expected from the 2025 accounts. Any adjustments to the 2025-2026 guidance, for better or worse, will be the first test to understand whether the prudence of the 2030 plan was excessive or justified.
Secondly there is the Electric chapter, the first zero-emission Ferrari. Investors want to understand not only the timing of the launch, but also the industrial margins: so far the Maranello company has chosen to maintain strong internal control over strategic components such as batteries, electric axles and active suspensions, but has not yet clarified what the economic impact of this choice will be.
A third element concerns the reactions of the consensus. If major investment banks continue to cut estimates, the stock could remain under pressure. On the contrary, any upward revisions after better-than-expected results could favor a gradual recovery of prices.
Fourth: the broader context should not be forgotten, i.e. interest rates, euro/dollar exchange rate and macroeconomic climate.
