Opportunities and challenges for Italian goldsmith companiesand in US market were at the center of the meeting organized by the Club degli Orafi Italia and the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo.
2025, stable growth
The event, hosted by VicenzaOro and moderated by Laura Biason, General Director of the Club degli Orafi Italia, was opened by the speech of Filippo Fusaro, Director of ICE Houston, which was followed by the presentation of the macroeconomic scenario and the prices of precious stones edited by dthe Daniela CorsiniSenior Economist responsible for commodity research in the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo. Stefania Trenti, Head of Industry and Local Economies Research of the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo, illustrated the recent trend and positioning of Italian companies in the USA, which will continue to represent one of the most important markets for jewelery in the future Made in Italy. The event closed with the testimony of Licia Mattioli, CEO of Mattioli, who illustrated the point of view of a company strongly involved in the US market.
But the picture is uncertain
In 2025, given a growth rate of the world economy close to 3% in line with that of last year, we expect to see heterogeneous macroeconomic dynamics between the various areas. In the United States, growth is well supported by still lively domestic demand and by a positive impact on the climate of confidence linked to the expectations that the next Trump administration will be able to implement policies favorable to growth and investments, at least in the short term. The inflationary risks of the new Republican policies and the resilience of the labor market could justify less than expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and therefore fuel the prospect of relatively high rates for a prolonged period.
In Europe, economic growth should accelerate thanks to the recovery of private consumption and investments by Next Generation EU, but, at least in the short term, the climate of confidence is negatively influenced by the risk of trade wars with the United States. The disinflation process, fears of new trade restrictions and political uncertainty in Germany and France could justify the continuation of the ECB’s expansionary policy until mid-2025.
The prices of precious metals
In this macroeconomic scenario, full of political and geopolitical risks, precious metals could exhibit relative stability. It is expected that gold can trade in a range of around 2,470 – 2,700 dollars per ounce, recording an annual average of approximately 2,550 dollarsari. So, that is not expected gold may reach new highs in the short term. However, after a phase of healthy consolidation, upward pressures on the prices of all the main precious metals should revive and new highs for gold are likely from late 2025 onwards.
For all metalsthe main factors to monitor during the year will be monetary policy expectations and the resulting impact on the relative strength of the US dollar, political risks (and in particular the possibility of new trade wars and changes to current energy policies) and geopolitical risks (especially in relation to the crises in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine). For gold it will be the same It is important to monitor demand from central banks, especially in emerging countries. In fact, it is highlighted that starting from 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent international sanctions against Russia, purchases of gold for strategic reserves have increased significantly.
In this scenario, the 2025 looks like a complex year for Italian goldsmith companies, which in the last few years
years have further strengthened their presence on international markets.
Made in Italy, the numbers
Thanks to the growth also recorded in 2024 (+44.5% in value in the first nine months of 2024)the “Made in Italy” gold jewel has consolidated its leadership among the EU27 countries and with 9.8 billion euros rapresents the continent’s leading exporter. In addition to the European context, the strengthening has also taken place at a global level: Italy, in fact, has gained market shares reaching 11% of global exports of gold jewelery in 2023 also thanks to the consolidation that has occurred in the American market, where Italy represents the second partner, after India, with a 14% share of American imports of gold jewellery, since 7.3% in 2009. American demand is mainly concentrated in four states which cover approximately 80% of the total: New York (46.5%), Texas (14.5%), California (12%) and Florida (5.9%). For all these territories, Italy is among the main commercial partners for American purchases of gold jewellery.
Italian exports to the USA in 2023 reached, for the entire gold and costume jewelery sector, 1.6 billion euros, placing the country in first place among Italian commercial destinations, with a
average of 14%, but with peaks of 50% for exports from Turin and around 30% for Padua. In the first nine months of 2024, Italian exports to the USA recorded a slowdown (-8.1% for gold jewellery), suffering from Indian and French competition, in a context characterized by the high uncertainty created by the electoral campaign.
“Trump” unknown
The risk of trade policies adverse events are difficult to evaluate, but the Italian gold sector will be able to count on a positioning in the high end of the market and on a high quality offer; furthermore, consumption trend hypotheses confirm growth of around 2% thanks to lower interest rates and a “wealth effect” linked to the increase in financial activity.
From the survey among Italian operators in the sector, carried out by the Club degli Orafi Italia and Intesa Sanpaolo, a good reaction capacity on the part of the Italian productive fabric emerges: 38% of companies evaluate the possibility of looking for new customers in other geographical destinations and the immediate revision of prices for the American market.