The positive trend continues Private Banking Italian. 2023 ends with 1,100 billion euros of assets managed (+4.7% compared to the 1,052 billion euros of Q3 2023; +11.2% compared to the 990 of Q4 2022) and a net collection total of 37 billion (+8.6 billion compared to Q3 2023). The contribution of the markets was positive (6.%, +3.5% compared to Q3 2023). These are some of the numbers contained in the 2023 final data of the market served presented by the Research Office of the Italian Private Banking Association (AIPB).
A 2023 better than projections
“In 2023, the growth of the Private Banking industry has consolidated. A positive result that confirms appreciation of Private customers towards a model of professional consultancy which assists families in making conscious and coherent choices with the balance of short and medium/long term objectives”, comments Andrea Ragaini, President of AIPB. As the association points out in a note, “with respect to the economic and financial scenario, 2023 ended more positively than projected, anything but good, with particular reference to the United States which closed the year with growth of +2.4% (the estimate was +0.9%).
Inflation fell to 2.9% in Europe, while central banks stopped increases, remaining stable at 4.5% (ECB) and 5.5% (USA).
These conditions have determined good performances both in the equity sectorwhich benefited from improved growth expectations in the final part of the year, both in the bond sectorwhose revaluations are based on expectations of a lowering of interest rates glimpsed by analysts in the short term”.
Government bonds and bonds are doing well
AIPB therefore noted that in this context Private investors have direct investments are favored of the administered sector (+37.9% y/y; +9.7% compared to Q3 2023).
Government bonds and bonds they grew by 68% while the shares rose by 17%. Also investment funds and asset management recorded positive, but significantly lower, growth of 7.7% (+4.2% compared to Q3 2023).
The forecast for 2024
In a scenario characterized by growing geopolitical instability, significant risks of deglobalization and possible fragmentation of production chains, the AIPB’s forecasts on economic growth remain cautious (slight + moderate growth for 61% of operators). “The inflationary flare-up that lasted 24 months is extinguished: for the majority of operators (56%) inflation in Europe falls below 2.5% in 2024, but the target will only be reached in 2025 (61%).
The policies of Central Banks therefore they had the desired effects, but on the near future the operators are divided halfway between those who expect monetary policy to be eased in the first half of the year and those who still consider it necessary,” we read in the AIPB Outlook 2024.
In the short term, the investment choices favor the bond sector, with expected returns between 5% and 10% (53%). Towards the compartment equity and alternative investments, operators instead express cautela due to fears about economic growth (78%) and the stability of corporate profits.
Starting in 2025 the Outlook reverses in favor of the latter, but with an investment style that favors it High Quality and High Momentum.
