Exceeded half of 2025, the Italian economy appears healthy. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini claimed it, quoting spreads, GDPs, employment and bag to ask for “more courage” in the next budget law and relaunch the idea of the Child’s scrapping.
On the same day, the World Bank certified a historical overtaking: with 60,847 dollars of per capita GDP, Italy has exceeded the United Kingdom (60,620 dollars), a result that had not happened since 1987. A symbolic goal, however linked to external dynamics rather than a robust growth. And is this here that the question arises: Salvini’s words really describe the state of the Italian economy or are they partial readings of favorable data?
Spreads and returns: comparison with France
Let’s take point by point and try to understand what the state of health of the Italian economy is. One of the most cited thermometers to discuss economic stability is the BTP-Bund spread. Salvini spoke of values ”close to the minimum terms” and the numbers, in fact, give him right.
In August 2025 the differential between Italian and German titles at 10 years oscillates around 78-80 basis points: a level that has not been seen since 2016. The comparison with France helps to better understand the picture. As Commerzbank reports, the Italy-French differential has reduced to about 10 basis points and to some deadlines, the BTPs even have lower yields than the French OAT.
The overtaking tells both the improvement of the Italian position and the greatest difficulties of the French public accounts. The statement is true, but a low spread does not mean that the economy goes well. It is an important sign of trust, because the markets perceive that the risk is more contained, but not a signal of the real growth of a country. There are many factors that affect monetary policy, comparisons with other countries such as in the case of France or expectations on public accounts.
Italian GDP exceeds that of the United Kingdom?
Yes, the overtaking was there and it is a historical fact. According to the data of the World Bank, in 2025 the Italian GDP per capita reached 60,847 dollars, exceeding for the first time since 1987 that of the United Kingdom, stopped at 60,620 dollars. The result is quite important, so much so that you have made the rounds of many international newspapers, obtaining prauses and titles that recognize the achievement of the data as “symbolic” for a country that for decades has chased the great European economies.
The problem is that we should speak of “overtaking of circumstance”. In fact, behind the primacy there is no acceleration of Italian growth, which closed the second quarter with a +0.4% tendential, just enough to maintain a positive sign. The overtaking is due to the British slowdown:
- Unemployment rose to 4.7%;
- Shopping for social subsidies has increased;
- Inflation reached 4%.
It is also true that Great Britain is paying higher interests in Italy and this is because a quarter of the British government bonds is indexed to inflation. In fact, analyst Daniel Johnson writes that the chancellor of the chessboard Rachel Reeves should take notes from the Italian government, because:
Meloni has shown that cutting taxes works.
And while in Italy there are bags of poverty, according to Johnson, in Great Britain, dependence on social assistance is widening, a phenomenon visible especially in the city such as Birmingham, where entire communities give up work. The data therefore tell a primacy for the per capita GDP, but not in terms of total GDP, where instead the United Kingdom continues to go better.
Is the employment at the highest?
Among the data mentioned is that of employment. It is a solid figure, confirmed by Istat in June 2025. In fact, the latest numbers speak of an employment rate that has reached 62.9%, the highest value ever recorded in Italy, with over 24.3 million people at work. At the same time the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%, the minimum since 2008.
Positive data that tell the estate of the labor market in a much more fragile European context than in the past. However, it should be noted that growth is mainly driven by over 50, while youth employment continues to remain a problem. Another fact to be taken into consideration is that employment does not necessarily mean stability. The types of contracts that mark the employment, for the most part of the fixed-term contracts and involuntary part-time, whose main victims are precisely women and young people must be analyzed.
Bag at the maximum: another sign of trust
Also on the share market front Italy can boast records. The FTSE MIB index has in fact exceeded the threshold of 43,000 points in August, touching the highest levels since 2007.
A result that reflects the trust of investors, fueled by the drop in the spread and the expectation of a more accommodating European monetary policy.
But as happens for the spread, even the maxima of the stock exchange do not equivalent to a boom in the real economy. The index are mainly driving the bank and energy securities, more sensitive to the oscillations of international markets than to internal dynamics.
Overall, therefore, Matteo Salvini’s claims are not wrong, but do not correspond to a growing economy. We can speak so of “good health” and stability, but this risks being stagnant. In the face of these structural problems, hidden among the read data and interpreted in a positive key, talking about demanding political choices for the budget law is perhaps premature. Dare yes, but when you have the security of being able to win.
