The US technological giants related to artificial intelligence (IA) have experienced a 2025 with strong oscillations. After months of enthusiasm, which had pushed the Nasdaq index on the rise of over 50% from the minimums of April and reported securities such as Nvidia and Palantir to earn respectively 30% and 100% since the beginning of the year, the sector suddenly slowed down. Underlines it Giacomo Calef, Country Head Italy of NS Partners
An exceptional rally followed by a slip
In recent weeks – explains the expert – the Nasdaq Composite has lost about 2% in a single week in mid -August, with the worst flexion of two days since the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 Information Technology index also sold over 2.5%, reflecting a widespread socket after months of almost uninterrupted rally. Many big techs had already exceeded the historical tops, pushing the evaluations on levels that have not been seen for years.
Evaluations to the stars and fears of bubbles
The central theme remains that of the assessments. In 2025 the growth of the indices such as Nasdaq and S&P 500 has been in line with profits, but in recent weeks the multiples have started to rise again. In addition, some big tech – in particular destination – are reducing their liquidity position in the last quarters. This raises fears among investors: on the one hand that the use of cash does not generate adequate returns, on the other that it can be entirely absorbed by the expenses in IA. In this case, the risk is that traditionally high profitability companies are actually transformed “intensive capital”, characterized by lower margins and a greater level of debt.
The US technological sector is now about 30 times the profits expected at 12 months, returning to the highest levels of the last year. The weight of the big tech on the overall index touches the historical tops and this increases sensitivity to each sign of slowdown. Some recent data have questioned the solidity of the boom: a MIT study estimated that 95% of companies do not yet get concrete returns from the generative IA projects. At the same time, Sam Altman, CEO of Openai, warned that the sector could be in a phase of excessive exuberance. The effect on the markets was immediate: Nvidia lost about 5% in a few days and other securities exposed to the AI recorded similar calm. In Europe, the pressure was reflected in companies such as ASML and FINOON, particularly sensitive to the expectations of demand for semiconductors.
Record investments: too much and too quickly?
The push towards the IA is not limited to the scholarships: it also concerns the budgets of the big tech themselves. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have increased their spending plans in an unprecedented way. According to some analysts, the cumulative capexs destined for the AI will grow this year, going from over 220 billion dollars in 2024 to almost 270 billion in 2025, with a scenario that could approach 280 billion. These numbers represent almost half of global investments in the sector and testify how strategic the theme has become. But the acceleration of the expense raises questions: will these resources manage to translate into concrete profits or will they feed yet another race to chase technology without immediate returns?
The episode of Deepseek, a Chinese startup that presented a free IA assistant in January declaring that he developed it with drastically lower costs and data compared to western standards, made the fragility of sentiment evident. In a single day, Nvidia lost 17% on the stock exchange, equal to 593 billion dollars of capitalization, while the sector has burned over 1,000 billion. The index of the semiconductors of Philadelphia collapsed by 9.2%, dragging companies such as Broadcom (-17%), AMD and Oracle (-13.8%) with it. An exaggerated reaction, then partly returned, but which showed how vulnerable the market to any signal of potential disruption.
Interest rates and market rotation
The reduction of August did not take place in a macroeconomic void. On the contrary, he coincided with a delicate moment for American monetary policy. After keeping the rates for over twenty years, the Federal Reserve approaches the Jackson Hole’s symposium with the market that bets on an imminent cut, perhaps already in September. However, the minutes of the last meeting highlighted a still on internal debate: if on the one hand the inflation remains above the target of 2%, on the other the slowing of the occupation requires caution.
For high growth securities, this context is particularly critical: high assessments such as those of the big tech become less sustainable if the cost of capital remains high. Hence the sectoral rotation movement that has characterized the last few weeks: while Nasdaq retaled, investors have increased the exposure to more defensive sectors such as utility, health health and basic consumer goods. The refuge assets also benefited: the gold stabilized over $ 3,400 the ounce and ten -year Treasury have seen incoming flows renewed. The search for stability has reduced the overweight on the technology, indicating that at least a part of the capital is moving to sectors perceived as less vulnerable to uncertainty on rates.
Cascata effects along the Tech supply chain
The drop has not only hit the big American: the shock wave spread throughout the value chain. The semiconductor companies were the most penalized, but the pressure has also extended to those who provide cloud infrastructures and cybersecurity services, sectors that had benefited from the theme IA in terms of evaluations until a few months ago. In Europe, weakness was evident on ASML, leader in lithographs for chips, and up to finally, the key supplier of the automotive industry. Some software groups have also affected fears of a saturation in spending for new IA models, indicating that the “correction” effect goes beyond Silicon Valley.
Conclusions
The recent drop in titles related to artificial intelligence seems, for now, more a physiological correction than a long -term reversal. The IA remains an engine of growth and innovation: the big tech continue to invest hundreds of billions of dollars and the medium -term prospects remain open. But the message of the markets is clear: not every evaluation is justifiable, not every expense is sustainable. After months of euphoria, investors ask for tangible results and solid business models. 2025 could mark the transition from the Hype to the proof of the facts.
