The Italian quarterly season closes with a faded photograph. The numbers stand, but slow down. The market selects, but does not sink. And those who raise their voices without showing consistency are ignored. Overall, the aggregate revenues of the FTSE MIB companies fell by 3.8% on an annual basis, going from 166.2 to 159.9 billion euros. In the middle, a two -speed price list moves, with divergences that widen between those who innovate, those who resist and those who find out vulnerable. Gabriel Debach, Etoro’s Market Analyst, explains it, taking stock of the Italian quarterly season and the market response.
Italian quarterly: the market raises the bar
Yet, from the first quarterly announcement (Brunello Cucinelli, 11 July) to the last publication (Unipol, 8 August), the Ftse Mib rose by 2.94%. A fact that does not cancel the dispersion in the individual securities, 24 out of 40 (equal to 60%) down to the first post-trimestral session, but confirms that the Italia system holds.
Banks: Italy holds, but the market asks for more
Banks, in addition to representing 38.7% of the basket (at the beginning of the year it was 31.5%), remain the center of gravity of Italian resilience. The six major institutions have generated over 9 billion euros in turnover, with record profitability and asset solidity of the best in Europe.
Unicredit raises the guidance to 10.5 billion net profit for 2025 and announces 9.5 billion of distributions. The reaction to the accounts is positive (+3.63%), but not euphoric. Intesa Sanpaolo signs the best semester of its history with 5.2 billion in profit and a 38%cost/income, among the most competitive in Europe, but loses land on the stock exchange (-2.41%). Mps, with a Cet1 Fully Loaded at 19.6% (among the highest in Europe), surprises positively (+5.00%). Banco Bpm and Bper shine for growth of net profit ( +85.25% and +72.56%), driven by strategic operations and expansion of the offer range. Fineco, Mediolanum and Mediobanca consolidate margins and revenues, maintaining a regular trajectory.
The message is clear, Italian banks are strong, liquid and offensive, despite the least contribution of the margin of interest due to the context of downhill rates. And the Risiko feeds narrative.
Industry and energy: selective resilience, demanding cycle
In manufacturing and energy, The global cycle divides. On the one hand, Leonardo shines with Ebit at +106% and margins in clear expansion (+530 basic points), but on the stock exchange the title has given -1.40% post publication, while Prysmian raises the estimates on the year thanks to the infrastructure projects (the market rewards +2.74% post -contract). Eni, albeit with revenues down 17% (conditioned by the drop in raw prices and a strong euro), relaunches on the basic business and production, as well as with investments in digital and artificial intelligence. Italgas shows the growth of the highest turnover, thanks to the integration of 2i Gas Rete, and significantly improves EBIT.
On the other hand, fragility emerges:
Stellantis still leads the FTSE MIB for absolute revenues, but marks the only negative ebit of the price list.
Iveco, after the sales and the cutting of the guidance leaves 4.5%on the ground.
Buzzi accuses the weakness of the US demand.
Saipem defends himself on the financial front, but remains exposed to cyclicality.
Enel sees the ordinary net profit for perimeter changes, but for the same activity, the useful salt of +4.4%
Consumption, health: no indulgence
In the world of consumption and technology, the market does not discount. Amplifon, after cutting the guidance collapses by 25.5%. Stmicroelectronics, with margins under pressure and production capacity not fully used, loses 16.6% reviewing the expectations for the third quarter. Ferrari (-11.7%) pays the excessive expectations and evaluations, while Moncler (-5.8%) discounts the normalization of demand and pressure on sales channels.
Sales prevail in the pharmaceutical. In addition to -25% of Amplifon, Diasorin (-2.77%) reduces revenues and announces divestments in Germany. Recordati (-4.33%) grows by 11.4% in revenues, but sees margins under pressure. Sales prevail in the pharmaceutical. Amplifon gives over 25% after cutting the guidance. Diasorin loses 2.77%, confirms the Guidance, grows 5%at Costante Rates and to Q2 by 2%, starts the disposal of the Dietzenbach site without impact on revenues. Recordati retreats by 4.33%, revenues increase but the profit falls for greater costs and investments, with Vazkepa still marginal in 2025. The only ones to escape punishment: Campari (+7.95%), thanks to an Surretforma in revenues, and Interpump (+8.22%), with organic growth and room for improvement.
The decisive variable: the Guidance
If there is a lesson to take home it is this: the direction of the Guidance counts more than the current result. The estimates raised: Unicredit (+3.63%), MPS (+5.00%), Prysmian (+2.74%), Eni (+1.82%), Mediolanum (+1.17%), Mediobanca (+0.64%), Leonardo (-1.40%), Azimut (-0.57%). They cut them: amplifon (-25.46%), STM (-16.63%), Iveco (-4.50%). The market reaction is clear. Whoever cuts precipitates. Whoever raises holds. But nobody is rewarded automatically. The progress of the FTSE MIB in the middle of the season (+2.94%) does not cancel the severity of the selection. It shows that the market is present, but no longer indulgent. Those who have solid fundamentals, visibility on the margins and execution capacity continues to attract capital. For others, narrative alone is no longer enough. In the second semester listed Italy will be played a lot. It will be played on a field in which the discipline of capital, strategic clarity and consistency between words and numbers will make the difference.
Historical maximums & YTD trajectories (Post-TrimeStral)
Few titles have transformed the “quarterly effect” into new historical maximums: Poste Italiane, Prysmian and Azimut. Poste has caught five new ATHs (All Time High), with a +11.29% from the day of the quarterly to August 12 and a year that runs to +46% with 51 new historical maximums only in 2025, the last updated on August 12, execution that becomes price. Prysmian updated the maximums twice after the accounts, last also yesterday, and extended the rise leg of +9.43% in the period, inside a +22% since the beginning of the year supported by many years of visibility. Azimut retouched the maximums on August 7, the post-announcement advance is more measured (+0.67%), but sufficient to certify a background push still intact (+26% Ytd and 10 ATH in 2025).
On the opposite front, as of August 12, they are under the performance of the first post publication session Stmicroelectronics (-16.63%on the day of the accounts, -16.85%in the period), Ferrari (-11.65%, -12.43%), Brunello Cucinelli (-1.28%, -11.28%), Moncler (-5.84%, -9.06%), Recorded (-4.33%, -7.46%), Diasorin (-2.77%, -6.63%), Saipem (-2.57%, -5.80%), Leonardo (-1.40%, -4.21%), FinecoBank (-1.84%, -2.44%), A2A (-1.66%, -2.26%), Pirelli (+1.16%, -0.82%), Stellantis (+0.16%,+0.01%), INWIT (+1.16%,+0.19%), Campari (+7.95%,+7.82%). All the others have kept or improved the initial reaction. Unicredit Guide for the breadth of the movement with +17.79% from the day of the quarterly and +78% since the beginning of the year, follow Mediolanum ( +9.33%, +46% YTD), Mediobanca ( +8.35%, +49% YTD), Bper ( +7.38%, +46% YTD), Banco BPM ( +6.03%, +50%, +50%. YTD), Telecom Italia ( +11.06%, +82% YTD), Italgas ( +3.79%, +37% YTD), Eni ( +3.61%, +14% YTD) and Enel ( +1.41%, +14% YTD). Interpump reopens his story with +8.70% in the period while reporting a negative YTD.
The post-content historian is a sign of strength and continuity. Flexion after the first reaction, however, recalls that an initial movement does not always equate to a trend change.
