“In a year marked by macroeconomic uncertainty and a high volatility of the markets, the change of the gearbox has significantly affected global portfolios. Since the beginning of 2025 dollar depressed over 14% Compared to the euro, touching the minimum for over three years. The causes are manifold: the growing twins of the United States – fiscal and current matches – have undermined trust in the green ticket, while the increase in federal debt and the renewed political pressures on the Federal Reserve have increased the uncertainty about the future trajectory of the rates “. This is what emerges from an analysis of Giacomo Calef, country head Italy of NS partners.
The impact on the bond sector
In the bond sectorthe ten -year Treasury offered returns between 4.4% and 4.6% in USD, a significant differential compared to the German bund, stable around 2.2%. However, for an investor in euros, the weakening of the dollar threw the apparent benefit of the American “carry”, transforming the basic points into a negative net performance. This scenario underlines the importance of looking beyond gross returns and carefully consider the impact of the gearbox, even resorting – where appropriate – to currency coverage tools.
The change effect on the Equipment
The change effect was also decisive on the shareholder. THE’S&P 500 recorded a rise of about +5.5% in USD In the first half, but for a European investor, he translated into a decline of about -6.5%, demonstrating how much the currency risk can overturn even the most brilliant performances. At the same time, a weaker dollar supported US exports and improved the margins of the US societies, which have so far not undergone significant revisions of profits. The context has favored a progressive reallocation towards the European equity, characterized by more content multiples and by an acceleration in the flows incoming already in the first months of the year. The sectors that benefited most were energy infrastructures – supported by public programs and long -term contracts – and public utility services, thanks to the stability of revenues. The European financial sector also showed resilience, thanks to diversified business models and a more favorable regulatory framework in terms of funding costs.
Focus on active strategies
Since US actions represent over two thirds of the global share capitalization, exposure to the dollar remains structurally high in international wallets. “To deal with such complex market dynamics,-concludes Calef-it is essential to maintain a course consistent with the medium-long term objectives, enhancing the Geographical and sectoral diversification. In this context, active strategies can contribute to containing volatility and generating value also to replace the traditional bond component “.
