According to the Cgia Studies Office, the current ones duties customs imposed by United States they could cost about Italy 3.5 billion euros in missed exports. If the rates were raised to 20 percent, the losses could go up to 12 billion. These are estimates based on OECD data that do not include any rates on specific product products. In 2024 Italian exports to the United States reached a value of 64.7 billion euros making the US market the second in importance after the German one. The duties in force include 50 & on steel, aluminum and derivatives, 25% on cars and components and 10% on other products currently subject to suspension until 1 August.
Chaos for Italian companies
Will the CGIA report two central questions: will US consumers and companies continue to purchase Italian products or will they aim for alternatives? And will the exporting companies be able to keep prices competitive without affecting the profit margins too much? The Bank of Italy recalls that the 43% of Italian exports towards the US it concerns high quality goods, while an additional 49% is of medium quality. To this, a significant part of customers could be less sensitive to price increases.
According to the analysis, Italian companies that export to the United States obtain only the 5.5% of their turnover from this market. The gross operating margin of these companies stands around 10% by offering a certain space to absorb any increases. The greatest risk, according to what was stated by the governor of the Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta on May 31, is that international trade loses its function of integration, transforming itself into a factor of political instability.
The most involved Italian products
Among the Italian products More exported to the United States are:
- machinery for general and special jobs (over 15%);
- medicines and pharmaceutical preparations (11.5%);
- motor vehicles (7.3%);
- ships and boats (6.2%);
- wines and drinks (3.8%);
- oil refining products (3.5%).
These sectors represent a significant share of the overall exports to the USA.
The export of the regions, those most at risk with the duties
The CGIA also calculated a diversification index for each Italian region. The regions of the South, in particular, are more exposed to the effects of duties due to the limited variety of exported products. The regions more at risk include:
- Sardinia with 95.6% of exports linked to a few products, primarily oil derivatives;
- Molise with 86.9% concentrated on plastic, chemistry and motor vehicles;
- Sicily with 85% strongly oriented towards oil refining;
- Valle d’Aosta with 88.1% steel -oriented;
- Basilicata with 80.9% granted on motor vehicles.
On the contrary, Lombardy (43%), Veneto (46.8%) and Emilia-Romagna (53.9%) show greater diversification.
The extension of duties and problems for the South
The southern regions, excluding few exceptions such as Puglia (diversification to 49.8%), show a strong dependence on a few production sectors. Any extension of duties Other goods could therefore hit these areas hard. The lowest diversification index, recorded in Sardiniareports how it is dependent on certain products and how the market structure is quite defined. In this situation, an increase in commercial barriers could further aggravate the situation. Basilicata, Valle d’Aosta and Calabria also have similar critical issues and risk paying more the weight of the duties imposed by Trump.
The most active provinces in exports to the USA
In 2024 the five Italian provinces With the greatest volumes of exports to the United States they were:
- Milan 6.35 billion euros;
- Florence 6.17 billion;
- Modena 3.1 billion;
- Bologna 2.6 billion;
- Turin 2.5 billion.
These five realities represent almost one third of the entire Italian exports to the USA.
