The petrolium it could go down again and run around the 60 dollars per barrel or even further down, reflected to the production increases planned by the OPEC+ and also to one possible Recession in the USA. The change of macroeconomic scenario will weigh on the application for oil, despite the fact that the sign has recently confirmed its forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
And although the collapse of the prices was greeted favorated by Trump presidentthe fall of the price will also have a negative impact on the oil sector and on Shale Oil producers, risking to aggravate the economic situation of the USA. A dog who bites his tail.
The American oil (WTI) exchanges today at 67.27 dollars per barrel, up 0.5% compared to Friday, while the Brent of the North Sea travels at 70.95 dollars a barrel, on the rise of 0.5%.
The cut of Goldman Sachs estimates
Goldman Sachs He joined the other Banks of 0 hall and cut the forecasts on the price of oil, indicating a price for the Brent a in an interval of 65-80 dollars to the barrel from 70-85 dollars previously indicated.
The revision follows the similar cuts made in recent weeks by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, both see the Brent in the High range of 60 dollars in the second half of the year. Also Citigroup and JpMorgan provided that the prices will close the year between 60 and 65 dollars, With a minimum point that is indicated from the first to 55 dollars, within the third quarter of the year, and the second which indicates even a minimum of 50 dollars.
Opec predictions remain unchanged
OPEC confirmed last week the growth of global demand of oil scheduled for 2025 a 1.4 MB/G. According to the Monthly Oil Market Report of the cartel, the total world demand for oil will reach an average of 105.2 MB/G in 2025supported by a strong demand for air travel and discreet road mobility.
The growth of the growth of the global application of oil in 2026 was in the same way confirmed 1.4 MB/D, year on year, unchanged compared to the last monthly evaluation.
OPEC+ towards the increase in the offer
At the beginning of the month, Eight Countries of the OPEC+ – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, – they reiterated their decision agreed on December 5, 2024 to proceed with a gradual and flexible withdrawal voluntary adjustments of 2.2 MB/GA starts from 1 April 2025.
The decision was made “taking into account the healthy fundamental market and positive market prospects”, explains the sign, also providing that “this gradual increase is suspended or reversed according to market conditions”.
The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to full compliance with the voluntary adjustments of the production and the year also confirmed their intention to completely compensate any overproduct volume from January 2024.
