New blaze of the price of oil over 70 dollars to the barrel, reflected to the renewed geopolitical tensions and in response to the possible European strategy flop To cut the barrel prices in Moscow. The raw prices on the main international squares are confirmed this morning above 70 dollars, continuing the rally started at the end of last week with the beginning of hostilities between Israel and Iran.
The prices over 70 dollars
The oil, last week, restored to 60 dollars per barrel, after the announcement of the new EU sanctions that involve the lowering of the oil roof to 45 dollars from the current 60. Then, the Tensions between Israel and Iran and the escalation of the crisis made the prices surrender last Friday, together with the Trump refusal to marry the EU line against Russiapushing the price over $ 70. The Brent share today 73.49 dollars on the barrel, up 0.33% and the WTI advance to 70.50 USDin progress of 0.40%.
The EU fears a failure to join the 45 dollar roof
The European Union, which last week announced the New penalties with Russia and the decision of Lower the roof to the prices of crude oil to $ 45now sees the risk of a lack of adhesion to its isolationist strategy, also due to the opposition of the United States to the top of the G7.
According to Bloomberg, some EU states fear that the proposal may not obtain support unanimous by all European governments without the support of the United States. Some countries have also urged coordination in the G7 field, indicating the reluctance to move without the United States.
The EU commitment, supported by the United Kingdom, aims to reduce the revenues of Russia deriving from oil sales, which the Kremlin is using to finance its war against Ukraine.
Goldman Sachs’ new forecasts
To support the prices of crude oil contribute the Tensions between Israel and Iranwho also forced analysts of Goldman Sachs to review estimates for the current year. According to the new projections, the Brent could exceed 90 dollars To the barrel if the Iranian oil exports suffered interruptions due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, but it could even exceed 100 dollars In more extreme scenarios.
“We continue not to assume interruptions of the oil supply in the Middle East,” said Goldman, adding, however, having calculated a prize for geopolitical risk.
Goldman’s predictions include one “base” scenariowhich considers a interruption of Iranian exports of 1.75 million barrels in six months, compensated for half by the greater production of the OPEC+, which would bring the Quotations at 90 dollars before descending again on 60 with the normalization of the offer in 2026. Obviously there is also one “Extreme scenario”in which regional production or routes through the Hormuz Strait are significantly impacted, in which case the quotes could also exceed 100 dollars in the short time.
Despite the risks, Goldman has maintained his end of year prediction on the Brent at 59 dollars, citing the expected growth of the offer outside the United States.
