This live broadcast closed at 6pm on Thursday.
The slight rise of American inflation, higher than expected, did not surprise the European markets, which closed the session lower, already characterized by general weakness. Milan is an exception, with the Ftse Mib growing by 0.43%, returning above 34 thousand points, supported in particular by the banking sector. In the red, dragged down by the negative start on Wall Street, London (-0.1%), Paris (-0.2%) And Frankfurt (-0.25%).
Among the protagonists stands out Bper, which recorded a leap of more than 8%, reaching the highest levels since 2015, thanks to the presentation of the new industrial plan.
Bper flies, Unipol and Generali also do well
At Piazza Affari, Bper closes with a strong rise (+8.23%), driven by enthusiasm for the new industrial plan to 2027, which provides for greater profits and a significant increase in remuneration for shareholders. Bper’s performance drives the entire banking sector, with a particularly positive impact on Unipol (+4.57%), which holds almost 25% of shares and options in the Emilian bank.
Bca Pop Sondrio ends the day with a rise of 2.98%, reaching 7.095 euros, while BPM desk marks an increase in 2.67%, with a value of 6.16 euros. Unicredit records an increase by 1.59%, reaching 40.00 euros, while Finecobank marks an increase by 1.36%, with a value of 14.90 euros.
Also General records a good result (+1.68%), thanks to a positive report from Morgan Stanley, which indicates it as a “Top Pick” in the insurance sector. Italian Post Office closes with a +0.5%, despite the upcoming placement of 14% of its shares by the Mef. Going against the trend, Leonardo closed down by 3.3%.
US inflation on the rise
In the United States, the consumer price index increased by 2.4% on an annual basis, slightly higher than the expected +2.3%. On a monthly basis, prices grew 0.2%, compared to the estimated 0.1%. Core inflation also exceeded expectations, with an increase of 3.3% annually and 0.3% compared to August.
These data, together with those of producer prices expected for tomorrow, will influence the Fed’s next decisions on interest rates at its November meeting. According to CME FedWatch, the chances of a 50 basis point rate cut have been eliminated, while 87% of traders are betting on a reduction in 0.25%.
In the United States, the number of workers who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending October 5 increased by 33 thousand units, reaching 258 thousand, exceeding analysts’ expectations which stood at 230 thousand. The previous week’s figure remained stable at 225 thousand. This increase could impact the economic outlook and the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions.
The price of oil is rising with December Brent at 78.3 dollars per barrel (+2.2%) and WTI at 74.8 dollars (+2.16%), due to the arrival of Hurricane Milton in Florida and supply risks in the Middle East.
Stock markets at 12: Piazza Affari positive with Bper and Unipol, the price of oil rises due to Hurricane Milton
European stock markets remain down, with the exception of Milan. Frankfurt gives it up 0.17%, Paris the 0.11% And London the 0.07%, While Milan advances 0.22% at 34,008 points at 12:05, driven by the rally of Bper (+5.11%) and its subsidiary Unipol (+2.20%). The performance of the other banks, such as Fineco and Generali, was also positive. Investors continue to bet on further interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, reiterated her full support for the half percentage point cut made in September and predicted two further cuts by the end of the year, confident in inflation moving closer to the target of 2%. %.
Meanwhile, the prices of petrolium rise, supported by the increase in fuel demand due to the arrival ofHurricane Milton in Florida and supply risks in the Middle East. The Brent grows by1.36%, settling at 77.62 dollars a barrel. The price increase also follows Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel with the launch of more than 180 missiles, which raised concerns about possible retaliation against Iran’s oil infrastructure. Israel has not yet responded, but Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said any strike against Iran would be “lethal, precise and surprising.”
Stock markets 9am: Bper and the entire banking sector rise in Milan
European stock markets open in a mixed manner. The Dax in Frankfurt recorded a slight decline of 0.08%, while the Cac40 in Paris fell by 0.14%. London’s Ftse100 bucked the trend, recording an increase of 0.28%, while Milan’s Ftse Mib also did well, gaining 0.30%, settling at 34,034 points.
In Piazza Affari’s list there are only banks with the biggest increases of the day: Bper Banca is in the lead and records an increase of 5.79%, with a value of 5.628 euros, after the Board of Directors’ approval of the 2024-2027 industrial plan. Bper’s move also supports Unipol (+1.7%), given that the insurance boasts a participation of almost 20%.
Followed by Banca Monte Paschi Siena, which is growing by 1.91% at 5,226 euros, and Unicredit, with a +1.52% at 39.975 euros, which remains specially observed for the acquisition of Commerzbank, while Bca Pop Sondrio gains 1.16%, reaching 6.97 euros. Mark the +1.33% Generali at 25.9 euros, with Morgan Stanley raising the rating from equal weight to overweight and the target price from 23 to 30 euros. Banco BPM grows by 1.03% at 6.062 euros, Intesa Sanpaolo dello 0.74% at 3,836 euros, and Poste Italiane of 0.71% at 12.75 euros, with the start of the sale of the second tranche to buy a minimum lot of shares.
The biggest declines of the day are led by the car sector: Ferrari goes down by 1.50% at 413.00 euros, as well as Iveco Group, decreasing by 1.29% at 9.014 euros. Stellantis, after yesterday’s good performance, drops by 0.8%, paying the price for the uncertainty about the management structure that could undergo a reorganization. According to indiscretion, in the next few days the CEO, Carlos Tavares, will present a review plan to the board of directors. Stmicroelectronics also fell, losing 1.20% at 25,435 euros.
Luxury is also struggling, with Brunello Cucinelli recording a decline by 1.15%, settling at 94.45 euros, and Moncler of 0.81% at 54.20 euros.
Off to the quarterly reports, waiting for the American data on inflation
European stock markets open in a mixed manner on a day full of important events. The ECB minutes relating to the last meeting of the governing council, during which rates were cut, are awaited. Furthermore, data on the trend of inflation in the United States will be published. The quarterly reporting season will begin tomorrow, with the results of major American financial institutions such as BlackRock, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan.
The value of crude oil is attempting to recover: the November future on the WTI rises by 0.4% to 73.56 dollars a barrel.
Spread at 130 points
Positions on Eurozone government bonds remain stable on the day the minutes of the latest ECB meeting on monetary policy are published, an event that is not expected to significantly influence the markets. The focus is mainly on September inflation data in the United States. At the beginning of the session, the yield of the reference 10-year BTp remained stable at 3.56%, in line with the previous closing, while the spread with the German Bund of the same maturity it remains at 130 basis points. The Treasury auction is also scheduled for today, which will offer 7.5 billion euros in 12-month BoT.
A stable opening is expected in Europe, in Milan all eyes are on Stellantis and Bper
European stock exchanges are expected stable at the opening (-0.04% future on the Eurostoxx50), despite the recent record of the S&P500 on Wall Street. Investors await the data onSeptember inflation in the United States, with forecasts indicating growth of 0.1% on a monthly basis, compared to +0.2% in the previous month, and an annual increase of 2.5%. Core inflation is also expected, with an estimate of 0.2% on a monthly basis, slightly down compared to +0.3% in the previous month and an annual increase of 3.2%.
In Piazza Affari the attention is on Stellantis, which is preparing for a significant reorganization at both a managerial and operational level, with changes at the top and cuts. CEO Carlos Tavares may present his restructuring proposal to the board of directors in the coming days; the plan would include substantial cuts that would involve several departments, including managers of the group’s various brands. However, it is not certain that the board of directors will approve Tavares’ proposal. Tavares himself is expected in Italy on October 11 for a hearing in Parliament.
Among the banks, the spotlight is on Bper, whose board of directors approved the 2024-2027 industrial plan. Revenues are expected to grow by 1.5%, reaching 5.5 billion in 2027, thanks to the increase in commissions (+250 million) and the selective growth in lending volumes (+300 million), which will offset the reduction in the interest margin due to the drop in rates and the ecobonus effect (-450 million).
