The conflict in the Middle East is expanding on a regional scale after the joint attack by the United States and Israel against Iran – in which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed – and the Iranian retaliation in various areas of the Gulf (with missiles hitting American bases, but also Israeli cities and other cities in the region such as Dubai), effectively rekindling a conflict that had been in the shadows since the 12-day war that broke out in June 2025. Also other prominent figures Iranians, such as Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and Admiral Ali Shamkhani, head of the Defense Council, were killed in the Israeli-US raids. In response, Iranian forces have launched missiles and drones not only against Israel, but also at numerous US bases and civilian targets in neighboring Gulf countries, and the conflict appears to be spreading on a regional scale.
The current situation: the conflict after the attacks in Iran
What was announced by US President Donald Trump as a 4-day “blitzkrieg”, the Epic Fury – or Lion’s Roar – military mission, actually seems to be widening and expanding both in terms of timing (with a minimum duration of four weeks according to Trump’s latest statements) and from a geographical point of view (with an expansion of the conflict to neighboring Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and Bahrain). The latter has great strategic importance both because it is close to the Strait of Hormuz and due to the presence of the main US naval command in the area, in the capital Manama.
A war against Iran could therefore spread to the entire region, with consequences that were unpredictable at the moment, although at the beginning the United States did not want to engage in a long war. As for Europe, following the launch of missiles on Cyprus, the United Kingdom, together with France and Germany, announced in a joint statement that they are ready to take measures to defend their interests and those of allies in the region, «enabling necessary and proportionate defensive actions to destroy Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones at the source».
Therefore, although they do not openly take the field alongside the United States and Israel – also mindful of their past in the long and bloody war in Iraq in 2003 – they are ready to adopt defensive measures: the United Kingdom has also allowed the United States to use bases in its territory for “defensive” attacks against Iranian missile attacks. A few hours ago, meanwhile, strong explosions were also heard in Beirut, where following an Israeli attack, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, there were 31 dead and 149 injured.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the oil question
A central node in the crisis between Iran and Israel-United States is represented by the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. In fact, approximately 20-30% of the world’s crude oil passes through this passage (approximately 15-20 million barrels per day) together with 25% of world exports of liquefied natural gas, mainly coming from Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed and merchant ships blocked: in the past Iran has threatened numerous times to close the Strait in the event of a large-scale US attack. In this scenario, attacks against US warships could also occur, which could cause a further escalation of the war.
Possible scenarios
Despite the fact that at this moment it is impossible to make certain predictions on how the situation may evolve, we can still try to outline the most likely scenarios that could arise in the near future.
Expansion of the conflict on a regional scale
The current attack by Israel and the United States in Iran could lead to the conflict spreading to a regional scale, with aopen military escalation and the entry into the field of Shiite militias in neighboring countries, such as Iraq, Syria, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which however are more weakened than in the past. At the moment, especially after the Iranian attacks on some US military bases in the Gulf countries, the United Arab Emirates, together with other countries, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, have called for de-escalation, moderation and diplomacy. However, regional players are certainly evaluating alliances and defensive positions also considering the risks of the action of the United States and Israel. The conflict could therefore spread on a regional scale, in a spiral of retaliation and violence, making de-escalation rather complicated. Furthermore, unlike episodes such as the one that occurred in Venezuela at the beginning of January, regime change with external intervention in Iran is much more complex and not immediate, like some models of regime change implemented in the past by the United States in other countries. This is due to the complex political and institutional structure of the country: even following the death of the supreme leader, therefore, it is not certain that the current authoritarian regime will end. After the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, a triumvirate was created in Tehran which provisionally assumed the powers of the Supreme Leader: formed by the President of the Islamic Republic Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and the new religious leader, Ayatollah Alireza Araf.
Protracted conflict
Rather than a blitzkrieg as defined by US President Trump, another scenario could be that of a continuation of strategic and economic pressures, such as the limitation of naval traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, use of drones and missile attacks to put pressure on with a conflict which could however become prolonged. On the other hand, US President Trump seemed to want to obtain a decisive but not long-term result, which could demonstrate his strength towards a historic US adversary like Iran. Currently, however, he has declared that the attacks will continue ” for as long as it takes to reach our goal“, attacking infrastructure, strategic resources and the dome of Iranian power. As for Israel, a historic ally of the United States in the area, its interest is to weaken Iran at a regional level: economic tensions, military losses and internal rivalries could weaken the country, a historic enemy in the area. In addition to the clear strategic interests in the area, Israel also wants to send a message of deterrence, demonstrating that with US support it is able to intervene militarily even against a large state actor such as Iran. In this context, the entry into the field of Russia and China, countries “allies” of Iran in terms of supplies in the field of military technology – the former – and from an energy point of view – the latter – could completely change the scenario and therefore really lead to a phase not only of escalation but of expansion of the conflict on a global scale.
Economic shock forcing negotiations
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global economic and energy shock, with direct consequences affecting inflation, trade and financial markets, which could lead to a need for diplomatic channels and conflict resolution. In this context, even powers such as China and Russia would not remain passive actors: the Beijing government, which has great interests in the energy flows of the Gulf, could try to increase its presence on the negotiating table, presenting itself as a mediator. The European Union continues to invite all parties involved to de-escalation, but is currently in a “marginal” role compared to the game being played in the Middle East: numerous European countries, including Italy, were warned of the Israeli-US attack when it was already underway. The High Representative of EU Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, in a statement on behalf of the 27 members, invited the parties to “protection of civilians and full respect for international law”, appealing to the principles of the United Nations Charter and international humanitarian law.
