The one that just ended was one negative week for the real estate sector on the stock market, both in Italy and in Europe, driven by corporate results. Meanwhile, the major central banks – Fed and ECB – seem more cautious about the next rate cuts. On Thursday evening, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, spoke of a US economy that is still very solid in the face of expectations of a gradual decline in inflation towards 2% and above all he indicated that, on the basis of these assessments, the Fed can afford to act calmly in the phase of monetary expansion. On the same day, the minutes of the October ECB meeting were published, from which it emerged that, initially, some members of the Council would have preferred to wait until December for a new cut (in order to have more data available), but adhering then to the easing proposal put forward by chief economist Lane (eventually approved unanimously).
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector experienced a negative week at European level, with the index Stoxx 600 Real Estate which recorded a -1.5% on a weekly basis, worse than the -0.5% of the Stoxx Europe 600.
A much worse performance was achieved by Italy, where the index FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate it lost 6% on a weekly basis, under-performing the FTSE MIB index which closed the week with a slight increase.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, there was a week positive for Restoration. The worse performances, however, are those of Aedes (-7.5%) and IGD (-7%). Negative: Abitare In (-4.3%), Gabetti (-3.4%), Next Re (-2.4%) and Brioschi (-1.2%).
There are various business ideas coming from listed companies in the sector this week. On the results front, Gabetti Property Solutions (company listed on Euronext Milan and full service Italian real estate provider) announced that operating revenues to 30 September 2024 they amount to 79.5 million euros, a reduction of 32% compared to 117.2 million euros in the same period of the previous financial year. Following the greater write-downs of the receivables on Gabetti Lab and relating to the reporting activity of the redevelopment works as a result of law 67 of 23 May 2024 which blocked the possibility of developing the majority of these redevelopment interventions, the EBIT was amounted to -4.2 million euros, compared to 4.2 million on 30 September 2023.
Always looking at the accounts, Brioschi Real Estate Development (real estate operator listed on Euronext Milan) has closed i 9 months 2024 with a positive consolidated gross operating margin of 2.3 million euros, in line with the data as of 30 September 2023. The overall result pertaining to the Group is negative for 3.9 million euros, compared to 2.3 million euro as of 30 September 2023.
Among other announcements, the Board of Directors of Aedes Società Anonima Ligure per Imprese e Costruzioni joint stock (formerly Restart) has called the shareholders’ meeting to obtain a authority to increase the share capital by a maximum of 5 million euros in order to pursue the objectives of the 2024-2028 Business Plan. More specifically, the company intends to significantly increase the Group’s real estate GAV by pursuing the objectives of the same Plan and seizing, in a timely manner, the best opportunities on the real estate market in order to achieve economic-financial balance, increase its assets real estate and support the creation of long-term value for all its stakeholders.
Macroeconomic data
The only insights on the macroeconomic front come from mortgage applications in the United Stateswhich in the last week have recorded a increase of 0.5%after -10.8% the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests fell by 1.4%, while that relating to new applications increased by 1.9%. This was announced by the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicating that i 30-year mortgage rates increased to 6.86% from 6.81% previously.
Sector studies
Interesting data came out this week onreal estate services industry in Europe (management, consultancy, planning, etc.), which in the last ten years it has grown more than construction: plus 60 percent, compared to plus 55 percent, according to a report by Scenari Immobiliari. In Italy the development is more recent, but is catching up quickly, with an increase of 45 percent. In 2023, the turnover of real estate services reached 40 billion euros with an increase of 9.6 percent on the previous year. But the average turnover per employee increased by 26.5 percent, demonstrating that there is ample room for growth. In Italy, the weight of construction and real estate activities in relation to GDP grew further during 2023, reaching and exceeding 19.5 percent, in line with the continental average of 19.4, thanks to a ten basis point increase in the construction sector. construction and fifty basis points in the real estate sector, consolidating the co-protagonist role played by real estate within the national economy, together with industry and commerce. Since 2015, Italian construction and real estate activities have seen their share increase by 2.5 percentage points, with an increase of more than 3.5 percentage points between 2018 and 2023.
