The end of the US shutdown generated a positive rebound on global stock markets, including real estate indices, which then faded due to doubts raised by industry insiders about American monetary policy. In particular, after the statements of some members of the Federal Reserve board which dampened hopes of a rate cut in December. Interest rate decisions will directly influence the cost of credit and, consequently, demand in the housing market.
What to expect from the end of the shutdown
Once the shutdown is over, the agencies that deal with the release of economic data will reopen, first of all the BLS which deals with inflation and labor market data, crucial data for the Fed’s decisions. Less than a month before the next Fed meeting, the September and October data relating to the unemployment rate at the Nonfarm Payrolls are missing, while for inflation only the October data is missing given the release of the September data which took place on October 24th on a completely extraordinary basis. All eyes are on employment data which could be decisive for the size of the Fed’s next cut, explains David Pascucci, market analyst at XTB. Bad data from the labor market, such as an increase in the unemployment rate or a new negative NFP, could drastically change operators’ expectations about a larger rate cut, at the moment the 0.25% cut is discounted.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese square closed the eighth in negative territory with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index falling by 1.8%. However, the sector performed well at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index gaining 0.52%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, Brioschi is the only stock with an increase and rises by 1.2%. Aedes down, losing 9%, followed by Next Re, down 3.9%. IGD loses more than 2% and Abitare IN loses more than 1%. Risanamento limits the decline to 0.9% and Gabetti to 0.3%.
Macroeconomic data
Mortgage applications are growing slightly again in the United States. In the week to November 7, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded growth of 0.6%, after the -1.9% recorded the previous week. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicated that 30-year mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.34% from 6.31% previously.
Sector studies
According to the latest Bank of Italy survey, in the first half of the year the data relating to new mortgages disbursed is positive, with a growth of +40.5% compared to the corresponding period of 2024. The growth in demand for new mortgages and subrogations instead stands at +16.4% in the first 9 months of the year, with September recording +7.6%, after the monthly peak in January (+26.8%).
In the third quarter, the share of mortgages for the purchase of first and second homes rose to 68%, a strong growth compared to the levels of the second quarter of 2025 (50%). However, there has been a slowdown in subrogation requests, the weight of which in the third quarter of 2025 contracted to 26% of the total requests collected on the online channel, compared to 38% in the previous quarter. These are some of the findings that emerge from the new edition updated to the third quarter of 2025 of the Mortgage Compass, the quarterly bulletin signed by CRIF and MutuiSupermarket.it which offers an updated and complete overview of the trends underway in the Italian residential and real estate mortgage market.
In the third quarter of 2025, the price per square meter of properties subject to mortgage loan guarantee recorded an increase of +3.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, bringing the average value to around 172,000 euros. In this market context, to cope with a demanding financial investment such as the purchase of a home, families increasingly resort to taking out a new mortgage, so much so that the percentage of residential sales assisted by financing grew in the second quarter of 2025 to 45.9%, compared to 41.4% in the second quarter of 2024.
While fixed rates applied to mortgages have started to grow again, the variable rate mortgage market is experiencing a moment of renewed attractiveness. Thanks to the decline in the Euribor and the contraction of spreads on variable rate mortgages, market expectations suggest that the variable rate could offer lower installments for the next 3 or 4 years compared to the corresponding fixed rate mortgages.
