The first strong signal of the day comes from Asia and is not linear. Samsung Electronics reported quarterly estimates much higher than a year ago, supported by demand for memory and chips destined for artificial intelligence data centers. The Korean group remains one of the most observed thermometers of the global technological cycle, because it intercepts the spending of large digital platforms, the race for AI and the demand for advanced semiconductors.
Yet the market reaction was not euphoric. Samsung shares came under pressure, dragging the Korean stock market and fueling a more cautious reading on the sector. After months of rally on stocks linked to artificial intelligence, investors are no longer satisfied with growing numbers: they want to understand whether margins, memory prices and investments in data centers can remain sustainable also in the second part of the year.
The market is starting to distinguish between real AI growth and financial valuations.
Weak Asia between chips, yen and profit taking
The Asian session confirms this caution. The Korean market retreats, Japan remains weak and the regional index moves into negative territory, despite Wall Street having closed positive with the support of technology stocks. The signal is relevant because it shows a divergence between American enthusiasm for the AI trade and a more cautious Asian reading on the same topic.
The exchange rate also matters. The yen remains near multi-decade lows against the dollar, keeping attention high on a possible intervention by the Japanese authorities. For Tokyo, a currency that is too weak can support exporters, but at the same time increases the cost of imports and complicates the interpretation of monetary policy.
For Europe the message is clear: the day does not start with a clear boost in risk appetite. Technology remains central, but more selective. Currencies remain a source of volatility. Asia does not offer a strong driving force for Western stock markets. It is a context in which European markets will have to measure not only the performance of American futures, but also the resilience of the sectors most exposed to the global cycle.
The AI rally enters the selection phase
The Samsung case comes at a time when artificial intelligence has become a major driver of global stock markets. The demand for chips, high-performance memories, data centers and digital infrastructures has supported the profits, multiples and capitalizations of the large technology groups, but the strength of the rally makes the current phase more delicate.
Investors are starting to wonder whether spending on AI will continue at the same pace, whether semiconductor prices can remain high, and whether additional manufacturing capacity will eventually eat into margins. These are questions that concern Samsung, SK Hynix, Nvidia, Broadcom and the entire supply chain of technology suppliers.
For European markets the issue is not far away. Even if Europe does not have the same weight as the United States and Asia in advanced semiconductors, the AI cycle impacts industry, automation, software, energy infrastructure and network investments. A correction in sentiment on chips could, therefore, also have repercussions on European stock markets, especially on the stocks most sensitive to technology and global demand.
Germany and the United States, the macro data to follow
The day also looks at Germany and the United States. German industrial orders have given a sign of improvement, but the recovery in manufacturing still remains fragile and conditioned by costs, exports and foreign demand. For Italy, the German data is always relevant, because many national supply chains are linked to components, machinery, automotive and intermediate goods destined for the European market.
In the afternoon, the calendar instead looks at the American trade balance, while the wait for the week’s Fed minutes remains in the background. However, the center of gravity of the day is not monetary policy, but the ability of the markets to absorb strong corporate data without automatically transforming them into new increases.
The session of 7 July therefore opens with a different message compared to the previous days. It’s no longer enough to talk about rates, oil or BTPs. The market enters a more selective phase, in which profits, valuations and quality of growth become central again.
