Waiting to understand how the new “Trumpeconomics” will materialize2025 looks like a year of opportunities and challenges for global stock markets, characterized in particular by rapid sector rotations and increased volatility. This is what emerges from the latest forecast document from Assiom Forex, the Association of financial operators, which lists the points of attention and possible market reactions.
US stocks are booming
“Despite the potential risks of a new trade war – it is underlined – we believe that also for 2025 the US stocks will be overweightedwhile also maintaining attention towards the actions of specific European countries. It will also be essential to pay attention to Chinese shares, which could finally become interesting for investors again.”
According to experts at Assiom Fporex, US stock markets will follow closely the “Trusk” agenda, with taxes and tariffs among the main elements of interest. The US market will benefit above all if the new President does not embark on a real new trade war, but uses this threat only as a negotiating tactic.
Also focus on the development of“Multimodal” artificial intelligencewhich will trigger a revolution in many economic and financial sectors, further attracting capital and interest worldwide.
Europe at the center of the compass rose: duties and reforms
Europe will benefit above all from ECB, that he can adopt further accommodating monetary policiessupporting cyclical sectors in particular. However, one of the main risks for the European Union in 2025 will be represented by Trump administration’s new trade policy. It is important to remember that approximately 50% of European GDP depends on foreign trade, with the United States as the EU’s largest trading partner, generating an annual trade of approximately 800 billion euros. A hypothetical imposition of new US tariffs of 10% on European productsit could reduce Eurozone GDP by around 1%.
Among the points of attention also the weakness of European political leadershipeven if the early elections in Germany they could surprisingly act as a positive catalyst, paving the way for a new growth-oriented policy. Germany and more generally the whole of Europe are faced with structural challenges which require responses from a new economic policy. In this context, we believe that the Draghi agenda can represent a strategic guide to incentivize private investments, improve competitiveness and promote a common defense policy.
From PIGS to PIGF: France under special observation
Assiom Forex is maintained “extremely cautious” on European government spreads also due to the greater supply of bonds due to Quantitative Tightening of the ECB, which will create pressure on spreads. Placements of government bonds in the euro area will be in line with 2024 (around 1.3 trillion). In a scenario without significant shocks on budget deficits, the countries that will have the largest gross issues (excluding short-term bonds) will be France (330 billion), Italy (320 billion), Germany (265 billion) and Spain (160 billion).
France is currently the country of greatest concernas the government has declared its intention to finance the 330 billion in gross emissions (net over 200 billion) with a significant amount of short-term placements (BTF). A choice that will see yields rise, especially in the short part of the curve (bear flattening). It is very likely that next summer they will be there new elections in Francewhere Le Pen’s chances of victory will be very high. In that context there will be an increase in the spread of France against the Bund in the 90/110 bps range.
Italy is looking to foreign investors
In 2025 Italy will have to finance between 100 and 110 billion in issues net of maturing bonds, which without the reinvestments of the ECB’s purchase programs become approximately 170 billion. Furthermore, the contribution of retail investors is expected to decrease significantly because Italians’ portfolios are already significantly overexposed to BTPs (65% of the total), a record level compared to the minimums, between 20% and 30%, reached from 2012 to 2016.
It is estimated that next year the Treasury will be able to count on around 40 billion in retail investments compared to 125 billion in 2023 and 54 billion in 2024. Therefore, the role of foreign investors must be predominant, equal to approximately 60% of net emissionsa very ambitious but theoretically achievable percentage in a context of stable volatility, given that the recent issues (7 and 30 year BTPs) had a record demand (200 billion) 80% of which was placed abroad.
Commodities and currencies
The weakness of global growth and the (selective and still uncertain) effects of duties athey will have a also impact on commodities and currencies. The effects of the global recessionary cyclical slowdown (China but also Europe) could have the result of slowing down the prices of raw materials, limiting the upside of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Experts also believe that the peak gold is probably behind us and profit taking is likely later this year as US election uncertainty is removed, and consolidation in 2025, likely in a range of USD 2,450-2,650/oz. On the contrary, there are greater upside risks in 2026 and in the following years because all the long-term drivers remain valid: deflation risks in China, increase in debt in the United States, inflationary pressures, persistent geopolitical risks.
As for the petroliumsupply and demand will reach new records in 2025, but the physical market will hardly be able to absorb the growth expected volumes, and therefore a modest surplus could be recorded already in the second half of 2025. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East should contribute to maintaining international crude oil prices at relatively high levels: Brent could settle close to an average of 76/78 dollars per barrel in 2025, while WTI around an average of 72/74 dollars.
