The Italian public debt has touched a new historical maximum exceeding the threshold of 3,070 billion euros in June 2025, according to the data released by Bankitalia.
It is an increase of 18 billion compared to the previous month. The issue of the sealing of public accounts has never been so current.
Tax revenues increase
But it is true that tax revenues continue to grow, with +8.5 billion in the first six months of the year, for a total of 257.3 billion, equal to +3.4% compared to 2024. Despite this the dynamic of debt confirms that the trend is structural and that crosses the country’s development prospects.
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti makes no secret of the fact that the high public debt represents a constant constraint for economic policy choices. However, the other exponents of the majority prefer to see the glass half full, interpreting the greater entries as a positive signal. Forza Italia proposes to allocate a part of the greater revenue (about 4.2 billion) to a cut of the Irpef for the middle class, while Fratelli d’Italia claims that the less taxes generate the more revenue.
Spread at minimums since 2010
A encouraging figure comes from the spread: the differential between BTP and German Bund has dropped under 80 basic points, at the lowest levels since 2010. A signal that the markets, at least for now, judge the trajectory of Italian accounts sustainable, especially if compared with that of France, which has a more content debt/GDP (114%) but a high deficit and political instability.
The reduction of the spread means minor interests to be paid on the new securities issued, and therefore a momentary relief for the state coffers. But it remains a photograph with lights and shadows: the spread also depends on the economic difficulties of Germany, which today makes the BTPs relatively more attractive.
Record public debt, because it is a problem for citizens
The public debt figure, if considered in absolute terms, does not tell everything. It is normal that the debt grows over time because the state spends more than it collects and must refinance the expiring securities. The really significant indicator is the debt/GDP ratio, today to 137.9%, the second highest in Europe after Greece (152.5%).
The most concrete consequence is that every year the state allocates over 85 billion euros to pay interest. These are resources that cannot be used for health, school, infrastructure or tax reduction. In other words, such a high debt means more taxes for citizens and less public services, because the state budget is bound by the growing weight of interest.
A positive element emerges from the accounts of the local administrations, which in June reduced their debt of 1.7 billion. Bankitalia underlines how the municipalities are often confirmed more virtuous than the central state in the management of resources, managing to contain expenditure and improve efficiency.
According to economists, public debt will be able to start descending only from 2027, if the growth of GDP is greater than 1% per year and if waste and unproductive expenses are cut. The new European rules of the stability pact will in fact impose a gradual reduction path of the debt/GDP ratio.
Possible strategies include the issue of long -term securities to dilute the risks, the fight against tax evasion, greater efficiency of spending and policies aimed at growth and innovation. But the risks remain high: a sudden rise in interest rates or a slowdown in the global economy could bring the spread high up and aggravate the situation.
