Since 2021, emerging markets have submitted compared to the markets developed with a cumulative waste of 40%, marking a phase of prolonged and apparently structural weakness. However, a new analysis of JP Morgan overturn the narrative. The US investment bank has in fact updated its judgment on emerging markets, reporting the beginning of a possible rebound. Among the countries to keep an eye on, there are three that emerge as the main choices for the future.
The emerging markets show signs of recovery
JP Morgan, one of the main reference rumors in the financial world, has recently reviewed its assessments on emerging markets. In detail, in a recent analysis, analysts explained that, after 4 years of weak performance compared to developed countries, emerging markets are showing signs of recovery.
Since the beginning of the year they have been overperforming compared to the developed markets, albeit slightly. Excluding China, the improvement is even more evident, with an increase of 2% on an annual basis.
JP Morgan favors markets characterized by a high domestic exposure – i.e. economies whose growth depends mainly on internal demand – and specific catalysts (so -called Bottom-up Idiosyncratic Catalysts) which can generate independent returns with global macro dynamics. India, Brazil And Philippines they fully fall into this profile.
The strengths of India, Brazil and Philippines
In a global context in which the developed markets show signs of slowing down and the assessments are often high, EM offer a mix of growth, interesting enhancements and diversification. India, Brazil and Philippines are not only stories of growth, but they also represent a alternative model of economic development more resilient e Less dependent on global cycles.
India
India today represents one of the most convincing examples of resilience and dynamism among the emerging markets. With a growth of GDP around 6-7% per year, a large internal market and a constant expansion of the technological and services sectors, the country is positioned as a real regional locomotive.
To play a fundamental role is the “domestic” orientation of the Indian economy. Unlike China, more vulnerable to external shocks and commercial duties, India relies on a growing internal question and a private sector in turmoil.
In addition, structural reforms, digitization and attention to infrastructure investments make the country particularly attractive for global investors looking for stable and long -term yields.
Brazil
Brazil today presents itself with more solid fundamentals and greater predictability, after crossing complicated years, between political instability and inflation. The agricultural and mining sector remains central, but in recent years there has been a certain degree of economic diversification.
In a context in which JP Morgan is in a positive way mineral sector – which historically tends to perform well – Brazil is in a favorable position. Furthermore, the growing attention to tax policies, the containment of inflation and the improvement of the institutional framework are helping to reconstruct the Trust of investors.
Philippines
The Philippines They represent another example of an emerging economy with a strong internal profile. The supported demographic growth, the improvement of the business environment and a relatively prudent monetary policy offer good growth prospects for the medium term.
In addition, the sector of remitted from abroad (remittances), which represents an important share of GDP, acts as a natural stabilizer in periods of global uncertainty.
It should be added that reforms aimed at improving the efficiency of the public sector, to liberalize some economic sectors and to encourage foreign investments are strengthening the country’s appeal to investors.
Investment opportunities
After 4 years of undertone performance with respect to the developed markets, emerging markets are experiencing a moment of renewed interest from international investors. From 2021 to today, emerging markets have submitted, compared to the developed markets, by 40%.
A combination of negative factors, including the Chinese slowdown, the increase in rates in western countries, geopolitical tensions and dollar strength, has penalized investments in developing countries. But 2025 is proving to be a turning point.
According to JP Morgan, given that already in the first months of the year the emerging markets began to beat the developed markets, with an average growth to a figure (excluding China), this change of pace is sufficient to motivate a strategic review and consider them not only an alternative, but one ‘concrete opportunities.
Countries like India, Brazil and Philippines are directly involved in this dynamic and offer potentially interesting returns For those who invest in thematic actions or EFTs related to the commodities or aim for the diversification and growth of capital in the long run.
For investors with adequate risk propensity and a time horizon of medium-long termthe time to look at (again) at the emerging markets could have arrived.
