The MPS Ops on Mediobanca pleases the government which aims to count more in banking risk

The Meloni government has a direct interest inMPS-Mediobanca operationboth economic and political. The potential benefits fromOops Of Monte dei Paschi di Siena on Mediobanca they entail gains and strategic implications for the executive. The Government, through the Treasury, is in fact the main shareholder of Mps.

First of all, a new large banking hub centered on the MPS-Mediobanca axis would strengthen the Italian competitiveness in the sector, it would help preserve jobs and lead to an expansion of the offer of financial services.

But the greater competitiveness of the Italian banking system is only one of the aspects dear to the Government.

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THE’voluntary public exchange offer to acquire the 100% from the actions of Mediobanca is valued in total 13.3 billion euros, entirely in shares. Offer that Mediobanca considers “hostile”.

It also has something to do with the match Generalof which Mediobanca has 13.10%. Beyond the financial repercussions, there are also many political ones.

The transformation of Monte dei Paschi di Siena from prey to predator, with the Ops on Mediobanca, signals that the Government considers the Sienese institution sufficiently healed and ready for a role leadership. This could justify past public bailout efforts, improving the perception of state intervention among citizens and in the financial system.

The MPS Ops on Mediobanca would strengthen the narrative relating to the protection of national interests and the strategic management of the banking system, with positive repercussions on electoral consensus for the Government, as future political polls will attest.

Summing up, the Government aims to demonstrate that the Italian banking system can generate value and that the State can play a leading role in its governance.

The operation sends a positive signal to marketsshowing that the Italian banking sector has emerged from the crisis and can now generate opportunities for growth and value.

All this, however, despite the criticisms of the opposition who fear the excessive politicization of the banking system.

More control over the financial sector

The Meloni government aims to strengthen Italian control over the banking and insurance sector, fearing foreign acquisitions or scenarios in which strategic assets could end up in non-Italian hands. Mediobanca is a key player, being the main shareholder of Generali.

The MPS-Mediobanca merger would allow the Government to have a more marked influence on Generali’s strategic decisions, protecting national interests in the insurance and financial fields.

As indicated by Minister Giorgetti, the long-term objective remains an orderly exit of the State from the capital of MPS. Strengthening MPS with a strategic acquisition could increase its value and make the sale of shares more attractive.

The operation allows the government to exercise indirect control over key issues such as the Generali-Natixis project and the various ongoing banking risks.

Internal consensus

Having overcome the disagreements within the majority over the drafting of the 2025 budget, it is now time to regroup the ranks: the government seems to be moving to maintain the consensus within the coalition.

The operation satisfies, at least in part, the expectations of Forza Italia, which hopes for the State’s exit from MPS, and of the League, which favorably sees a strengthening of Italian banking institutions, although the plan of an axis is not exactly realized Mps-Bpm.