In the third quarter of the year, attention will be mainly paid to the evolution of commercial tensions between the United States and the rest of the world. Investors will be focused in an attempt to evaluate the real impact of announced rates, any commercial agreements between the countries involved and the consequent macroeconomic impact on the growth and commercial scales of the various economies.
Italian stock sector, III quarter under the lens
In particular, you will try to understand if The rates already announced vethey actually apply, or if you adopt a strategy aimed at generating tension on the markets and among the governments, and then arrives at a negotiated and shared solution, capable of satisfying both sides. Underlines it Massimo Trabattoni, hEad of Italian Equity by Kairos Partners Sgr in the analysis on the III quarter 2025 on the SEttore Italian stock,
In this context, it will be crucial to monitor the Reporting Season of the third quarter 2025, which will provide the first concrete data on the impact of US commercial policies on the trend of Italian companies and, in particular, on the sectors most exposed to the demand of the American consumer. It will also be a first test to compare the expectations of companies with analysts’ estimates and investors. The quarterly results they will offer key indications on how the companies are absorbing the consequencesand commercial measures and how they intend to face the possible developments of the commercial war, influencing the sentiment and market prospects.
Focus on the luxury sector
A significant example in this context – explains the expert – is represented by luxury sector. Inside, the American consumer – although generally wealthy and relatively immune to the dynamics of the economic cycle – tends to increase his propensity to spend during the upward phases of the share market and slow it down (even without reset it) in moments of greater volatility or correction. Consequently, a possible escalation from the Trade Warcon the relative increase of the bag volatility, could generate a brake on the demand from the US market.
As already happens from several quarters, Even in the next period the banking sector It will remain in the spotlight of the financial community, in particular for the numerous operations of M&A in progress.
The next few months they should mark the conclusion of many of these negotiations, cOn the other hand to redesign the panorama of the national banking sector. The expected scenario is that of a progressive concentration of the sector, which could see the current fragmentation characterized by numerous player local, in favor of few large national operators, in line with what has already happened in other European countries.
Volatility, banking M & a banking and small cap
It should also be noted that, during the last quarter, a repositioning movement on the market of the small and, above all, of the Mid Cap Italian. This phenomenon was largely determined by a situation of underweight generalized in the portfolios of institutional investors towards this asset class. As attentive observers of this market niche, we are monitoring these first signs of renewed attention with interest, which we also consider attributable to the strong evaluation discount achieved by SMEs, in Italy as abroad, compared to the most capitalization titles.
However, to attend a sustainable restart in the sector“Greater visibility will be needed On the macroeconomic front, a more robust seal of the economic cycle and a further drop in interest rates, in order to support companies also through a lower cost of indebtedness “.
