April 2nd Donald Trump The flag of protectionism will return to win as if it were the banner of a personal crusade. Forget the bombastic proclamations: this time the script is more sober, at least apparently. The rates do not come to rain, but follow a reasoned choreography, like a blade ballet.
And there is the concrete possibility that some countries may be saved from the duties return. His is no longer just an ideological poster, it is an Excel sheet with targets highlighted in red.
Trump, the announcement of “Liberation Day”
Trump renamed “Liberation Day” on April 2. A name from Kolossal, for an announcement that promises to be less scenographic: New customs rates with ample capacity, but non -totalizing. Some countries will remain out of the viewfinder, others will be affected. The sectoral duties, for now, remain outside the official menu.
The message to historical allies is not very accommodating: those who demand barriers against American goods will be treated with the same penalty. Only those who leave their markets open and allow the USA to export more than care will be able to breathe a sigh of relief, at least for now.
Trump also ventilated the hypothesis of hit specific sectors as:
- car;
- microchip;
- drugs;
- timber.
It is not clear, however, if these measures will be included on April 2nd. The automotive, in particular, could breathe a sigh of relief if the announcement is postponed.
As often happens with the president’s decisions, the situation remains fluid. Internal sources, writes Fortunespeak of continuous negotiations on How to concretely apply the measurement. Trump personally insists on an exacerbation of imports on imports, also seen as a source of alternative revenue.
While from Washington arrive far from relaxing signs, Rome plays in advance. The plan developed by Farnesina aims to armor economic relations with the United States, without sacrificing to plant tricolor flags on new commercial routes. Tajani shows off the map of the high potential non-EU markets:
- South-East Asia;
- Latin America;
- Golfo;
- Türkiye;
- Africa;
- India.
Alert markets
The bags scrutinize Trump’s movements, with the stock index stumbling on the words “duties” and “retaliation”. The previous waves hit metals, strategic allies and direct competitors, leaving evident signs in the graphs. Now, from the White House comes a sign of partial defuse: The list of countries in the sights will be less crowded and the pre -existing rates, such as those on the steel, will not necessarily be overlapping.
Trump, originally, He dreamed of a unique rate To tame them all. Then he turned on a more “personalized” level, made of customized countermeasures and tailoring barriers. Among the names that run in reserved briefing:
- European Union;
- Canada;
- India;
- China;
- South Korea;
- Japan;
- Mexico.
Bloomberg however, suggests that Brussels could be spared from a complete sting. The measures to the study would be flexible, scalable, even accommodating in some cases. A way not to start the transatlantic bridges too quickly. And to give a contentment to the markets, always sensitive to any variation of tone from the US front.
Italian sectors at risk: the alarm from the agri -food sector
The possible repercussions of the new protectionist measures are felt particularly on the Italian agri -food. An analysis of Italian CIA-Agricultors, based on Nomisma data, noted that the More exposed regions In the case of commercial escalation with Washington are Sardinia and Tuscany.
The first, which produces almost all of the Roman pecorino, allocates almost half of its food exports to the United States. The second, however, could undergo relevant losses by virtue of the high incidence of oil and red wines on their foreign trade. Among the products that risk the most:
- apple cider;
- Roman pecorino;
- Northeast white wine:
- Tuscan red wines;
- Piedmontese red wines;
- Prosecco;
- extra virgin olive oil.
Possible concessions and second thoughts on Canada and Mexico
Among the open dossiers there is also the question of duties towards Canada and Mexico, imposed for the alleged failure to combat Fenanyl’s trafficking. The administration is evaluating whether to remove or replace them with the new mutual measures.
In the past, the staff of the former president had evaluated a three -level strategy, dividing the countries based on the severity of commercial practices. The idea was then set aside.
Economists remain voyeur. It is not clear whether the duties machine will actually bring into the federal coffers or only new frictions in the already creaking of the American economy. With the inflation that peeks out and the growth that struggles to get out of the pits, there are those who see the most risk that performance in this new protectionist season.
