The effect of Donald Trump’s duties is felt for the first time in Italian export data. In August the value of the goods purchased from abroad dropped by 8.1%, while imports of 7.1%. Above all, the United States weigh, towards which exports collapse by 21.2% and imports grow by 68.5%.
In recent months the exports had grown, despite the threats of continuous duties and the uncertainty generated by the sudden rethinking of Trump. However, it was only the effect of frontloading, which now affects the exports of August.
Exports outside the EU collar
Despite the very negative data of exports to the USA, the American one is not the worst figure in August for Made in Italy in the world. In fact, the ranking reads:
- Türkiye, -26.1%;
- United States, -21.2%
- China, -16.7%;
- Japan, -16.6%
- ASEAN (South -East Asia), -10.8%;
- OPEC (Petrolio manufacturers), -7.7%;
- Mercosur (countries of South America), -5.1%.
The main European markets that remain outside the European Union are growing little. Exports to the United Kingdom increased by 4.9%, while those with Switzerland by 4.7%.
Above all, the export of durable goods, which collapses by 26.3%. The non -durable goods, -13.2%, and instrumental ones, -8.4%, also bad, while energy exports go into contrast, +23.7%, and those of intermediate goods, +1.9%.
The commercial gap with the United States is reduced
Although Türkiye’s data is relatively worse than the American one, the US contribute for almost 50% to the collapse of exports to the non -EU countries of August. At the same time, however, a surge in imports from the United States has occurred, which compared to 2024 increased by 68.5%.
This had the effect of partially rebalancing the commercial balance between our country and the USA, which is now similar to what Italy has with Switzerland and the United Kingdom:
- United Kingdom, a positive commercial balance of 1,266 million euros;
- Switzerland, a positive commercial balance of 1,214 million euros;
- United States, a positive commercial balance of 1,208 million euros.
Commercial balance is the difference between the value of exports and that of imports between two countries. It is expressed with positive values for those who export, negative for those who care. For example, Italy exports 1.2 billion euros more than assets to the United States compared to how many amounts. Likewise, the Italian commercial balance with China in August was negative by 3.15 billion, which means that our country has imported many more assets than they exported to Beijing.
What is frontloading and because it is making exports drop
The August figure is clearly counter to the July, when exports to non-EU countries had grown by 9.9%. The US had contributed a lot to this result due to the frontloading phenomenon. When possible, the American import companies had made stocks of goods from the countries they feared would suffer from Trump’s duties.
This de facto delayed the effect of duties both towards countries that export to the USA, and on American inflation. Now that the duties have entered into force, however, this phenomenon is aggravating its effects. The American warehouses are full of the goods purchased in advance in recent months and for this reason the orders are falling.
