There “black swan” theoryevents of great impact, very rare and unpredictable, but not impossible, capable of changing the course of the economy and finance represent the inspiring element of the “Outrageous Predictions” which outlines each year BG Saxoa broker born from the joint venture between Saxo Bank and Banca Generali. But what are the extreme scenarios for 2025? And what could be the possible impacts on the economy and finance?
Among the black swans expected over the years from the Saxo Group there are also hypotheses that have become reality, such as the Brexitexpected in 2015, or the increase in value of cryptocurrencies of 2017, and the growth of investments in fossil fuels in 2022 at the outbreak of war in Ukraine. For next year, BG SAXO dares with 8 “Outrageous Predictions“: from the dollar crisis to the fall of OPEC.
The dollar crisis
Donald Trump’s re-election could send the US dollar into crisis. The first black swan contemplates the hypothesis that the President, in his second term, decides to impose duties on all importswith the help of a Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) run by Elon Musk, interrupting the supply of money necessary to keep the wheels of the global system turning, causing a collapse of the dollar and, at the same time, arise of cryptocurrenciesbut also of digital money, gold and the euro.
Nvidia doubles the value of Apple
Nvidia doubles the size of Apple – an unlikely but suggestive hypothesis – to become the most profitable company of all time. According to BG Saxo the credit should go to a revolutionary chip of artificial intelligence, capable of increasing the performance of AI calculations up to 25 times with the same energy consumed. With soaring electricity costs for data centers, the innovative chip would take over the market and shares of Nvidia they would be exchanged above $250.
China would bet everything on fiscal incentives
After creating the most epic debt bubble in history, the China bets on fiscal incentives: according to this forecast, in 2025, China could focus on reflation to manage inflationary risks with fiscal initiatives worth over CNY 50,000 billion (approximately 7,000 billion dollars), together with social policies that incentivize companies to reduce working hours to improve people’s quality of life.
The first 3D bio-printing of a human heart
A scientific breakthrough is the most optimistic black swan of 2025 capable of revolutionizing the healthcare sector and attracting new investments. The researchers – it is hypothesized – would use the advanced technology of 3D bioprinting to print a human heart fully functional: starting from high-resolution scans, scientists could create an elaborate digital model that captures every detail of the heart’s structure; then a cutting-edge 3D bioprinter, layering human stem cells and biodegradable materials, would build the artificial organ. A wave of innovation and investments would be so able to redesign the healthcare sector and extend the lives of millions of people.
The electric boom and the end of OPEC
As battery prices fall, i electric vehicles they could become increasingly cheaper leading to a crisis in the oil market. The fifth black swan therefore concerns the fall of OPEC, due to the loss of centrality of petrol or diesel transport and the progressive reduction in importance of the cartel: with the exit of some key countries, the remaining members in the organization would increase production to secure a market share, causing the collapse in the price of crude oil.
A tax on data centers
Following the surge in electricity prices, the US could impose data center taxes on Big Tech for AI and fines for larger, energy-intensive data centers. This impossible scenario would open up new investments in the sector, among others solar parks and power plantswhile provoking a new inflationary impulse caused by the increase in the price of energy.
The collapse of the insurance industry caused by natural disasters
The seventh Prediction concerns one storm of colossal dimensionswhich could catch the insurance sector unprepared, to the point of causing the bankruptcy of a large company of the sector, guilty of having underestimated the risks linked to climate change. The US government would find itself ad face a crisis: save the insurance company, to prevent other companies from suffering the same fate and from triggering a wave of panic, even among consumers. The catastrophic event, however, would require insurance companies to review premiums related to natural disastersresulting in a profound reduction in home values in many markets.
The pound would make a comeback post-Brexit
The Last Black Swan is about the revival of the British pound: while the European economy is struggling, in the United Kingdom the new Labor government could initiate new fiscal policies to bring the national currency back to pre-Brexit values, rising to 1.27 against the euro. Encouraging domestic investment and stronger growth prospects would support the pound against the euro, pushing the exchange rate down to 0.7500.
