At 8 am (Moscow time) on August 6, 2024 the Ukrainian Armed Forces they crossed the border with the Russia in the area of theoblast (“province”) of Kursk (not far from the city of Belgorod), launching a real military offensivewhich to date has led to taking the check of a vast area of Russia, the size of which varies depending on the sources consulted: it ranges from 400 km2 according to the Russians to 1000 km2 according to the Ukrainians (the truth probably lies somewhere in between). What is certain is that the Ukrainian armed forces currently control at least 28 Russian settlements and penetrated Russian territory between 10 and 25 kmdepending on the reference point. It is not known exactly how many Ukrainian troops are currently involved in the offensive, although a likely estimate is around 10,000/12,000 menbetween front-line and support troops.
There Russian answer so far it has been uncoordinatedled to theevacuation of over 121,000 civilians from the fighting area (according to Smirnov, governor ofoblast of Kursk), and managed to stop the Ukrainian advance only in some areas. Moscow’s armed forces, in fact, were completely taken off guard from the attack, being busy on the rest of the war front to progressively conquer further Ukrainian territory. Among the results achieved by Ukraine, which has objectively obtained a tactical victory on this occasion, there is the take control by his troops from the town of Sudzha and the neighbor’s Russian gas pumping station to EuropeThe resulting instability produced a light increase in gas prices on the European market (just under 5%).
The Ukrainian President Zelensky has claimed the offensivewhile his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putininstead reacted with anger and fiery statements, stating that Russia’s priority is now to expel completely and with force Ukrainians within their state borders. Below you can see a map (updated on August 11) of the more or less occupied area currently,
Having made a brief overview of the situation, let’s see what the possible consequences could be. goals Ukraine’s main behind the offensive:
- Conquering Russian territories to be used as “exchange currency” in a possible future negotiated with Russia, in turn, having taken control of vast areas of more than 4 Ukrainian oblasts since the beginning of the conflict.
- Gain control of the Russian gas pumping station Sudzhaa strategic point of the Russian energy infrastructure towards Europe.
- Maybe take possession of the Kursk nuclear power plant (just as the Russians gained control of the Ukrainian power plant in Zaporizhzhia in March 2022).
- To inflict a harm to the Russian Armed Forces present in the area, in view of future further offensive from Moscow.
- Ease the pressure of Russian forces in the area surrounding the Ukrainian cities of Sumy and Kharkiv and on the southern front of the war (particularly in Donbass), forcing Putin and his generals to move troops from areas where Russia is progressively advancing or consolidating its positions.
- Inflicting image damage on Vladimir Putin and increase the political pressure towards him to induce him to negotiated. This last objective, however, given the recent statements of the Russian president, seems to have had the opposite effect, with Russia preparing to respond militarily in a decisive manner and to completely repel the Ukrainian offensive.
Ultimately, as things stand, it is likely that Russia will be able to gather a certain number of soldiers to send to Kursk Oblast and repel the Ukrainian offensive.
