There is tension again between Unicredit and Commerzbank, after the Piazza Gae Aulenti Institute formulated very optimistic forecasts regarding an integration with the German bank, which once again responds no to the advances of the bank led by Andrea Orcel, while in the evening also comes the annoyed comment from the German government, which says it is against hostile offers in the banking sector.
UniCredit estimates profits of 21 billion in 2030
UniCredit yesterday presented its idea of creating value that would result from the merger of the Bank with the German Commerzbank, for which it launched a public offering aimed at increasing beyond the 30% stake at a price that values the shares of the German bank at 30.8 euros.
The Italian Institute, in particular, has opened up the possibility of reviewing the conditions of the OPS based on the level of subscriptions, outlining two scenarios: a scenario in which it will not hold the controlling stake with a return not exceeding the cost of capital; a scenario in which it will hold the controlling share with returns higher than the cost of capital and will be able to give rise to a real integration.
In any case, the operation will also have consequences on the positioning in Germany, which would become the prevailing geography for the Group and capable of exercising an influence on its general management. In the event of a merger, Commerzbank would remain standalone until 2028.
The new reality would have a success story ahead of it, in contrast to the “disappointing operating results” reported by Commerzbank to date, so much so that the stock is now “overvalued compared to the fundamentals”. Unicredit estimates profits of 21 billion in 2030, following the merger with Commerzbank, while net revenues could reach 45 billion euros and costs would be 14.5 billion euros.
Bettina Orlopp’s clear no
The estimates formulated by Unicredit have obtained a new rejection from the German bank, led by Bettina Orlopp, which reiterates its position regarding the integration, reiterating that it underestimates the value of the Institute.
Yesterday evening, Commerzbank formally responded to the forecasts made by UniCredit, rejecting the Italian group’s approach and accusing it of resorting to “hostile tactics and misleading descriptions”.
“We are amazed that UniCredit has taken more than 18 months to present a unilateral plan that lacks a basic understanding of the key drivers of our business model, despite regular meetings with investors during this period,” said Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp.
Berlin is also moving on the issue
The German government has not failed to make its voice heard in this regard, reiterating that it is against “hostile offers” in the banking sector. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while acknowledging that “in Europe we need large banks”, clarified that “this does not mean that every form and type of acquisition is welcomed in Germany”.
“We firmly reject hostile and aggressive tactics,” concluded Merz, clarifying Berlin’s judgment at an event dedicated to the banking sector.
