The cryptocurrency rally has come to a halt in recent weeks, with Bitcoin which retraced from the highs it touched in the $82,000 area to test the $61,000 mark. This is what emerges from an analysis by Roberto Rossignoli, Senior Portfolio Manager of Moneyfarm, who identifies the deterioration of the macroeconomic framework and the increase in geopolitical tensions as the main factors of the correction.
Institutions behind the rally
The bullish phase was supported by the interest of institutional investors and progress on the US regulatory front. In particular, the Clarity Act – a bill aimed at defining a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States – passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9. The 309-page measure gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodities and introduces the obligation for stablecoin issuers to maintain reserves equal to 100% of the value issued. To become law it will have to obtain at least 60 votes in the Senate: the White House is aiming for a signature by July 4th, but the actual entry into force would not take place before 2027.
The wait for the Fed
On the monetary level, Kevin Warsh he was confirmed to lead the Federal Reserve by a vote of 54 to 45, the narrowest margin in recent history, taking office on May 22. Considered an expert in cryptocurrencies, he had previously defined Bitcoin as “the new gold for the under 40s”. Warsh inherited an environment of persistent inflation of 3% to 4%, oil prices above $94 a barrel and high bond yields. In this scenario, the probability attributed by operators to a failure to cut rates during 2026 rose to 68.8%, with a part of the market starting to hypothesize further increases.
Escape from Bitcoin
The announcement also contributed to weighing on sentiment Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which announced the sale of 32 Bitcoins for approximately $2.5 million, the first net sale since 2022, out of a total of over 843,000 units held and aimed at paying the dividends of the STRC preferred shares.
Geopolitical tensions have accentuated risk aversion. Military escalation in the Middle East has resulted in the liquidation of leveraged speculative positions worth more than $700 million in just a few hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged into “Extreme Fear” territory and the overall market capitalization has shrunk from approximately $2,530 billion to $2,250 billion. Between the highs of May and the lows of June, Bitcoin recorded a drop of around 15%, larger than that of stocks: a trend which, according to the analysis, confirms how in phases of tension cryptocurrencies behave mainly like risky assets. There dominance of Bitcoin remained around 58%, while Ethereum it settled around $2,100, below recent highs.
On the on-chain data front, daily active wallets dropped to around 531,000 units and new wallets created to around 203,000, the lowest levels in the last two years. On June 1, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched Bitcoin volatility futures, the first regulated instrument dedicated to the cryptocurrency’s price fluctuations.
Finally, the flow picture was reversed. After six consecutive weeks of inflows and spot ETF net assets exceeding $100 billion, since May 20 the products have recorded ten consecutive sessions of net outflows of approximately $3 billion, equivalent to over 40,000 BTC. The weekly outflow of $1.47 billion recorded at the end of May was the highest of 2026. At the beginning of June, year-to-date flows returned to negative territory, at -3.1 billion, while part of the capital was oriented towards the SpaceX IPO and the theme of artificial intelligence.
