Inflation trends continue to represent one of the main factors affecting the purchasing power of Italian families and salary dynamics. After the sharp increases in prices, triggered by the energy crisis and international tensions, the new forecasts released by Istat allow us to understand what the evolution of the cost of living could be in the coming years and what effects could be produced on the salaries and purchasing power of workers.
How to calculate the purchasing power of salaries
To understand how pay slips will change, it is necessary to refer to a specific indicator used in negotiations between unions and companies: the Ipca (harmonized consumer price index) net of imported energy goods. This is a measure of inflation calculated according to European criteria, from which, however, the most unstable items, such as oil or gas purchased from abroad, are excluded.
This system, introduced with the framework agreement of 22 January 2009, serves to calculate salary increases on the basis of expected inflation, and then verify at a later stage whether the real values have followed the estimates. Excluding imported energy prevents sudden and temporary changes in raw materials on international markets from being automatically and distortedly reflected in salaries.
Istat forecasts for the period 2026-2029
According to new Istat calculations, the IPCA net of imported energy goods should follow the following trend:
- +2.4% in 2026;
- +2.6% in 2027;
- +2.1% in 2028;
- +2.0% in 2029.
The scenario therefore envisages moderate but still present inflation, stably around 2%, a level considered physiological in many advanced economies.
What effects on salaries
The forecasts were developed using the information available as of 10 June 2026, take into account the most recent ISTAT macroeconomic scenarios relating to the Italian economy and, if they were to be confirmed, future salary increases in employment contracts will be calculated on the basis of inflation between 2% and 2.6%.
This means that wage increases could be smaller than those seen in recent times, when soaring inflation has forced larger adjustments.
Naturally, each collective agreement follows specific rules and negotiations between unions and employers’ associations may provide for higher increases or additional remuneration elements.
How the purchasing power of families could change
If wages grow at least as much as expected inflation, families’ real income can remain substantially stable. On the contrary, increases lower than the HICP would lead to a loss of spending capacity, while higher increases would allow a recovery of purchasing power eroded during the years of high costs of living.
Even if the scenario outlined by Istat suggests a less turbulent phase compared to the two-year period characterized by strong growth in energy prices – with inflation expected to return to more manageable levels for both families and businesses – for workers the real issue does not just concern the nominal increase in salary, but its ability to keep purchasing power unchanged.
Prospects for the labor market
Istat forecasts therefore indicate a framework of gradual normalization of Italian inflation in the four-year period 2026-2029 and – for workers, businesses and social partners – this means being able to plan contract renewals, investments and wage policies with greater certainty.
The objective remains that of finding a balance between protecting the purchasing power of employees and economic sustainability for companies, in a context in which the cost of living should continue to grow but at a decidedly slower pace than in the years of the energy crisis. The challenge in the coming years will therefore be to verify whether salary increases will be able to follow the trend of expected inflation, allowing a real recovery of disposable income and greater stability of domestic budgets.
