The opening on June 16th showed a stable spread between BTPs and Bunds. The differential remained at 72 points, with yields substantially unchanged compared to yesterday. The wait is linked to the agreement between Iran and the US for peace in the Middle East, which should be signed on Friday.
In the meantime, in Italy, the issuance of Btp Italia Sì is taking place, inflation-indexed securities on which retail investors, savers, have priority. On the first day the State collected approximately 3.17 billion euros from the sale of these securities. The issue will continue until Friday 19th.
Spread stable awaiting agreement between USA and Iran
After yesterday’s collapse, with the spread between BTPs and Bunds falling by several points over the weekend, the spread instead remained stable at 72 basis points. Even the yields themselves, at the opening on June 16, were stable, with BTPs recording coupons of 3.68% on average for products maturing in 10 years.
A result mainly due to the expectation of developments in the Middle East. Iran and the US have reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding to put an end to the ongoing conflict. The details that emerge are very favorable to Tehran, which would maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, would impose a toll there once the 60-day ceasefire was concluded and could even receive 300 billion dollars in compensation from the US.
The other European spreads were also stable
What matters most to European countries is that oil from the Gulf countries returns to travel to Asia, putting an end to the energy crisis which has led to a slowdown in the economy and an increase in inflation and interest rates. It is therefore no coincidence that the spreads of the other main countries on the continent, such as France and Spain, have also remained stable.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
| German Bunds | 2.96% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 3.68% | 72 |
| French Oats | 3.59% | 63 |
| Spanish Bonos | 3.38% | 42 |
The Spanish Bonos maintained a spread of 42 basis points with yields around 3.38%, while the French Oat remained at a spread of 63 basis points, with yields just under 3.60%.
The results of the first day of the Btp Italia Sì and the June auctions
Yesterday, Monday 15 June, was the first day of the issue of BTP Italia Sì, the new inflation-indexed government bonds made available by the Treasury. They have a minimum yield of 1.60%, but with inflation close to the expected one, equal to around 2.3%, they could yield even 4% net annually.
On the first day of issuance, 95,571 contracts were registered, equal to a value of approximately 3.17 billion euros in government bonds. The other regular auctions of government bonds will also be held in June. The calendar includes:
- Wednesday 24 June, the auction of Short Term BTPs and BTP€i;
- Thursday 25 June, the Bots auction;
- Friday 26 June, the medium-long term auction.
