As already happened at the beginning of the week, the spread between BTPs and Bunds returned from a peak of over 80 basis points in just a few hours. The opening of the day on March 20th recorded a decline in the differential compared to the 83 points reached in the morning of the previous day. Falling yields for both German and Italian, Spanish and French securities.
The BTP and BOT auctions will also be held next week. Between Wednesday 25 and Friday 27 March the Treasury will issue various financial products, from very short-term to 10-year ones, with very interesting returns for investors.
Spreads falling despite international tensions
Another significant fluctuation for the spread, which reduced by three points and reached 80 after the peak on March 19th. The yields on 10-year benchmark BTPs returned below 3.80%, to 3.74%, exactly eight tenths of a percentage point less than their German counterparts, which did not exceed the psychological quota of 3% and returned to 2.94%.
However, this week has also been very volatile for Italian government bonds. The fluctuations in yields were significant, while the spread effectively erased all the progress made in the last six months. The differential with German bonds is at this point the same as at the end of October 2025 and only 23% less than a year ago. Furthermore, the comparison with the peak of April 2025 is approaching, when it touched 130 points, and then embarked on a downward trajectory that took it to the lows of early 2026.
The ECB’s decision on European rates and spreads
Yesterday the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 2%. A choice that affects the yields of government bonds, but above all that indicates that there will be no further cuts in the near future. On the contrary, the impact of the oil crisis on inflation already recovering in February could lead Frankfurt to decide on a monetary tightening.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
| German Bunds | 2.94% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 3.74% | 80 |
| French Oats | 3.61% | 67 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.44% | 50 |
Meanwhile, the peaks of March 19 have also subsided in Europe. Spanish Bonos brought yields far from the 3.5% threshold and the spread exactly at 50. French Oat followed a similar trajectory, with the spread with Bunds falling to 67.
Next week’s BTP and BOT auctions
The end-of-month BTP and BOT auctions will be held between Wednesday 25 and Friday 27 March:
- the auction of Btp Short-Btp€i on 25 March;
- the Bots auction on March 26;
- the auction of medium-long term BTPs will take place on 27 March.
The first will concern short-term BTPs and those indexed to inflation in the euro zone. This will be followed by the auction of BOTs, the shorter-term products put on the market by the Treasury. Finally there will be medium and long term BTPs, with a duration of 5 to 10 years. The first auctions in April will follow:
- the Bot auction on April 9th;
- the auction of medium-long term BTPs will take place on 10 April.
