This live broadcast ended at 6:30pm on Monday.
Business Square closed the session down by 0.25%stopping at 33,679 points. Banks weighed on the list, with Unicredit in the lead, which recorded a decline of 3.3%, but Banco Bpm also dropped 2.4% and Intesa Sanpaolo 1.9%. In contrast, Ferrari led the list with a rise of 2.3%, followed by Stellantis (+2.2%), Snam (+1.6%) and Hera (+1.5%). The Btp/Bund spread remained stable at 135 points.
The other European stock markets closed positively: Frankfurt gained 0.6% despite the 5.8% drop in Commerzbank, Paris posted a +0.1% and London a +0.35%.
Unicredit close to 30% of Commerzbank, but the German government is not having it
There had been fears of a halt by the German government, but in the end the alarm was called off. Indeed, not only Unicredit continues to push ahead and has increased its stake in Commerzbank to 21%, but has asked the ECB for permission to increase its stake to 30%, which has already expressed its approval of cross-border mergers.
The operation is a significant step for the European banking market, involving two of the continent’s largest institutions and more than one hundred thousand employees. However, Unicredit’s decision has generated friction with the German government, which has expressed concern about the perceived hostile expansion of the Italian group into the German banking sector.
Currently, Unicredit and Commerzbank are the eighth and twelfth largest banks in the European Union by balance sheet size. A merger between the two institutions would create a banking giant that would rank fifth place, further consolidating their position in the European financial landscape. This move would strengthen the combined group’s ability to compete internationally, accelerating the consolidation process in the European banking sector.
Banks in decline, the hypothesis of an axis weighs on extra profits
In addition to UniCredit, other banks in the red on Piazza Affari such as Banco Bpm and Intesa Sanpaolo. The reason for the sales is the return to the political scene of the tax on banks’ extra profits, that is, aextraordinary tax on banks’ interest margins operating in the territory of the State. A proposal put forward by the Government to finance the 2025 Budget, but which the banks rejected.
The latest hypothesis under study involves the introduction of a “solidarity withdrawal” equal to 1-2% of company profits accrued in the last 12-24 months, with the aim of financing measures such as the reduction of the tax wedge, Irpef relief or the thirteenth bonus. This would be a one-off solidarity contribution, to be defined in collaboration with the companies involved.
After the government’s attempt last year, this time the executive has chosen a more cautious approach. Since the beginning of the summer, they have been started informal contacts with the banking sector, in order to explore shared solutions and avoid open conflicts. But Forza Italia is once again standing in the way of any attempt at taxation or imposition from above: “We are against it, it would damage local banks and create uncertainty on the markets to the detriment of Italy”, warns Antonio Tajani.
Stocks at 12:00: recovery in the afternoon, but uncertainties remain
European markets are showing a recovery after the general decline in the morning, but remain mixed influenced by disappointing macroeconomic data. SMEs The preliminary September composite for the Eurozone has in fact slipped below the psychological threshold of 50, settling at 48.9 pointsthe lowest level in eight months and below consensus expectations of 50.6. The manufacturing PMI also disappointed, coming in at 44.8, a nine-month low (consensus at 45.6).
Thus, Frankfurt gains 0.39%, while Paris loses 0.41%. London marks an increase of 0.22%, while Milan slightly drops by 0.06%, settling at 33,742 points. Under pressure are banks and some industrial stocks, such as Iveco (-0.77%) and Leonardo (-0.72%).
Stocks 9am: Down despite Chinese rate cut
The European stock exchanges open the week with a slight decline. Without momentum Frankfurtwhich trades at -0.05%, while Paris loses 0.08%, London 0.12% and Milan it goes down 0.11% at 33,736 points.
The declines are disappointing the experts’ expectations; the stock markets were expected to be in the green this morning, after the surprise decision of the central bank of china to reduce the rates on 14-day operations with commercial banks. A move seen as a signal of upcoming economic stimulus measures and further interest rate cuts. The recent Fed rate cut of 50 basis points has also fueled debate on possible moves by European central banks, in particular the BoE and the ECB.
Luxury and banks down, good opening for Tim
Among the stocks with the biggest increases of the day at Piazza Affari, the following stands out Telecom Italia, which records an increase in 0.71% and reaches 0.2417 euros per share. Hera follows with a gain of 0.56%, bringing its value to 3.562 euros, followed by Amplifon which advances by 0.54%, with the stock reaching 26.13 euros. Snam grows by 0.49%, settling at 4.527 euros, while Ferrari marks an increase of 0.48%, reaching 422.10 euros. Inwit gains 0.37%, reaching 10.85 euros, and Terna grows by 0.25%, bringing its value to 8.042 euros. More modest increases were seen by Stellantis, Erg and Eni, with increases of 0.22%, 0.17% and 0.10% respectively.
However, the declines were greater; especially the luxury, with Brunello Cucinelli down 2.04%, bringing the value of its shares to 81.50 euros, and Moncler down 1.40%, with the stock slipping to 47.33 euros.
And they don’t even smile banks: Bper Banca recorded a 1.66% drop, reaching 4.852 euros, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena dropped by 1.41%, reaching 4.901 euros, and Unicredit immediately behind with a 1.36% drop, stopping at 37.48 euros. The Orcel company has its eyes on today, after the German government has for the moment put in stand by further sales of its stake in Commerzbank, supporting its desire for an independent strategy for the institution.
Nexi, Finecobank and Banco BPM recorded losses of 1.28%, 1.27% and 1.21% respectively.
This week’s appointments
Stocks are falling, therefore, despite the interest rate cut in China that was thought to be good for European stocks. Investors are waiting for further announcements, considering that on Tuesday the governor of the People’s Bank of China will meet with the heads of the National Financial Regulatory Agency and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to discuss measures to support the economy. Meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed for the autumn equinox holiday.
On the European macroeconomic front, attention is turned to the first reading of the PMI indices, by S&P Global, which measure the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors in the Eurozone countries. In the United States, the focus of the week will be on GDP and inflation linked to consumer spending, key factors in predicting possible rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year.
Spread at 135 points
The week opens with a spread stable between BTp and Bund. In the opening session, the yield spread between the reference 10-year Italian BTp and the German Bund with the same maturity stood at 135 points basis, in line with Friday’s close. The yield on the benchmark 10-year BTP instead shows a slight decline, falling to 3.54%, compared to 3.57% recorded the previous day.
