Gaza, what will happen after the UN resolution on the ceasefire for Ramadan

On 25 March 2024 the United Nations Security Council approved, for the first time since the beginning of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict which began on 7 October 2023, a resolution for a immediate ceasefire in Gaza until the end of Ramadan. The motion – defined as “shameful” by the Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu – was approved with 14 votes out of 15 el'US abstention.

Security Council resolutions United Nations they are one of the main legal acts that can be adopted during a conflict and have a binding nature, i.e. they must be followed by all member states. After numerous resolution proposals for a ceasefire in Gaza, blocked by the veto power of the 5 permanent members, in particular China, Russia and the United States, this resolution brings the hope that the ceasefire can become long-lasting and permanent. Let's see what the resolution provides in detail, what the reactions of the actors involved were and what the developments could be.

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What does the resolution on the ceasefire in Gaza include?

The United Stateswhich to this day with its own veto they have always blocked any resolution to this effect, they abstained, allowing the resolution to be passed. Presented by Mozambique, it received the favorable votes of: Algeria, China, Ecuador, France, Japan, Great Britain, Guyana, Malta, Russia, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, South Korea, Switzerland. The United States explained that theabstention was motivated by the fact that the text lacked an explicit condemnation of the attacks of 7 October by Hamas. The duration of the ceasefire is not permanent but will last for the period of Ramadan, until April 9th ​​or 10th. The resolution specifies that it is hoped that this will lead to a permanent and lasting ceasefire with the release of the hostages and with access to the Gaza Strip of the humanitarian aid and of medical care for the Palestinian civilian population. For their part, both the countries that are part of the Arab League and the European Union have expressed their favorable opinion on the Security Council resolution. Hamas initially said it was open to an immediate exchange of prisoners with the Israeli government. What he is calling for, however, is a permanent ceasefire with the return of the displaced and an immediate withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza Strip.

Israel's reaction

Israeli President Netanyahu has decided to cancel the visit of a delegation of senior Israeli officials to Washington, scheduled to discuss the military offensive on Rafah. The Israeli government and its delegate to the United Nations stressed that the resolution makes no condemnation of the October 7 attacks and does not make the ceasefire conditional on a immediate release of the hostages. The Israeli government is currently starting to experience an internal split: on March 25th there were also the resignation of Israeli minister Gideon Saarof the centrist national-liberal New Hope – Tikva Hadasha party, while in the United States Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer called for Netanyahu's resignation and new elections in Israel. Israeli civil society for its part is calling for greater commitment to the release of the 130 hostages still detained by Hamas and is unfavorable to the judicial reform proposed by Netanyahu in January 2023, according to which the Israeli Supreme Court it would have a limitation of its judicial power, with the possibility of reconstructing a law invalidated by the Supreme Court and of modifying the selection committee of judges by the government. This, along with the handling of the October 7 attacks, led numerous Israelis to to protest against the government for months. In this context, the UN resolution was read by the Israeli prime minister as a step back by the United States, promptly denied by the US government. However, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz declared that Israel will not cease fire until the complete liberation of the 130 hostages and the destruction of Hamas.

What could happen now

Following the resolution approved by the Security Council, Israel should cease fire and we should continue to work for the release of the hostages and for access to the Gaza Strip for humanitarian aid and adequate medical care for the Palestinian civilian population. The scenario is constantly changing: first of all, it is important to understand Israel's decision regarding possible offensive on Rafahwhere they are present at the moment 1.5 million Palestinian refugees. Hamas, after the harshness expressed by the Israeli government in not wanting to cease fire until the 130 hostages were released, expressed the need for a truce before any negotiation on the release of Palestinian hostages and political prisoners in Israel, an exchange necessary to continue the negotiations, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is on its last legs: the civilian death toll continues to rise, with approx 32,000 deaths And 73,000 injured and with the Palestinian population without supplies of food, water and medical care. UNRWA (the UN agency for the relief and employment of Palestinian refugees in the Near East) convoys heading north to the Gaza Strip were blocked by the Israeli government, with approximately 300,000 people at risk of famine which, according to a report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, could reach one million by July. According to Doctors Without Borders, it is important that members of the Security Council ensure that the ceasefire is implemented immediately by guaranteeing Israel's compliance with the resolution, to prevent it from being ignored like previous resolutions on Gaza (No. 2712 and 2720) of November and December 2023.