Interim week for the financial markets. The quarterly reporting season is now coming to an end and investors’ focus has returned to central banks, in particular, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In December, the two largest institutions may continue to cut key interest rates. The geopolitical front, with the worsening of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, also contributed to keeping stock prices in check.
The macroeconomic scenario and central banks
On the macroeconomic front, the data on the trend of theproductive activity in the Eurozonewhich, moreover, caused the euro to slide to its lowest level since November 2022 against the dollar, on the bet that the European Central Bank will launch a cut in the cost of money by 50 basis points in December. Investors were looking for clues about the ECB’s decisions, in the words of Christine Lagarde, who, speaking at a conference in Frankfurt, however, glossed over the topic of rates and concentrated on the topic of the union of capital markets. The German federal office lowered the estimate of GDP of Germany of the third quarter to 0.1% from the previous 0.2%. In Great Britainthe October inflation data, according to insiders, will probably not push the members of the Bank of England towards a further rate cut during the next meetings. Estimates are that the BoE will cut rates at a much slower pace in 2025 than previously expected. Contrasting statements, however, arrived overseas, where Michelle Bowman said that a cautious approach must be adopted and prefers to gradually lower the reference rate, while Lisa Cook used more accommodating words.
Euro at lows on dollar and oil on the rise
The euro slipped to its lowest against the dollar since late November 2022 after the release of PMI indices in the Eurozone which showed weakness in both manufacturing and services in November.
Bitcoin is preparing to hit $100,000
The Bitcoin the march continues, unstoppable, towards the threshold of 100,000 dollars, never reached before. The cryptocurrency, which also broke through the barrier of 99,000 dollars, continues the rally that began with the election of Donald Trump to the American presidency who has always shown himself to be extremely favorable to the cryptocurrency and has promised very favorable regulations.
Among commodities, the petrolium he returned to running on the prospect of a drift in the war between Russia and Ukraine and the escalation of tensions in recent days. Crude oil prices thus returned above 70 dollars a barrel, despite the bearish factors that had caused prices to fall in the previous months. Geopolitical tensions are making thegold above $2,700 an ounce. According to UBS, the yellow metal could rise to as high as $2,900 an ounce by the end of next year, an analysis that mirrors Goldman Sachs forecasts.
The weekly performance of the stock markets
The crown for increases this week, which was rather mixed, was won by the London stock exchange with the FTSE 100 index bringing home an increase of 2.3% followed by Madrid which gained 1.05%. Fractional increases were achieved by Frankfurt (+0.31%) while Paris recorded a -0.78%. The Milanese stock market fell sharply, with the FTSE MIB leaving 2.5% on the ground, awaiting, late in the evening, the judgment that Moody’s will express on the Italian public debt. The finale is preparing at two speeds for Wall Street, with American indices showing mixed signs.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
Among the best worst of the week, the banks stand out, due to bets on a decisive intervention by the ECB to reduce rates. In particular, Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo suffer, falling by 8% and 6% respectively. Outside the banking sector, Technoprobe also fell by 5%. On the downside, Generali stands out, earning more than 4%. Followed by Saipem (+3.7%) and Tenaris (+2.4%).
