After a prolonged development period (from 2001 to 2017, with an annual growth rate composed of +3.3%), the slowdown of sales, exacerbated by pandemic crisismarked the end of an era and the car sector It has settled on levels permanently lower than in the past. Starting from 2019, while the world GDP began a slow but constant recovery, the production of vehicles has undergone a marked and lasting declineconsolidated by factors such as the global deficiency of semiconductors and the strong tensions on international logistics chains. The projections to 2030 indicate a world growth rate of just +0.2%. It is the scenario described by the new study conducted by Aniasa and Bain & Company “Navigating in the fog. The uncertain future of the automotive”.
New scenario
The study highlights an important redefinition of geographical leadership. If in the period 2001-2017 Asia (and in particular China) has guided the global growth of the car sector, today the scenario has changed: for the period 2017-2030, a substantial stagnation is expected in China (+0.3%) and a decline in mature markets like Europe (-0.6%), North America (-0.4%), Japan and Korea (-1.2%).
On the contrary, new areas of potential expansion emerge such as Southern Asia (+2.7% of Cagr) and South America (+1.5%), Which could become the new engines of the demand, thanks to the growing urbanization and the improvement of local economic conditions. According to estimates, by 2028 Europe will accumulate a gap of about 15 million vehicles Compared to the forecasts made in 2022. The North America follows A similar trendwith a negative waste of 7.5 million units. These figures testify to a structural slowdown in the demand that risks compromising the sustainability of many manufacturers, especially those with greater exposure on these markets.
The geography of the duties
TO complicate further the scenario, add the commercial voltages Among large economic blocks that are leading to an increasingly aggressive use of duties as an industrial policy tool. The German houses are among the most exhibitedwith about half of their volumes at risk: they have to face stagnation simultaneously in Europe, the Loss of momentum in China and the customs barriers imposed by the United States. For Japanese and Korean manufacturers, the problem concerns above all the American market, where they are strongly present, but vulnerable to duties. The United States are trying to recover ground industrial, after a decades of manufacture. Between 1947 and 2023, manufacturing occupation collapsed from 30% to 8% of the workforce, while the contribution of the GDP manufacturing fell from 25% to 10%. In parallel, China has assumed a dominant role in global production, controlling over half of the world production of steel and ships in 2023.
The great imbalance of imports
In 2024, the United States are the first importer market of light vehicles, with about 5 million units, 23% of their internal needs. Europe follow (over 4 million) and the Middle East. On the other hand, China and Japan are almost completely self -sufficient. American imports largely come from Asian brands – in particular Toyota, Hyundai and Kia – while Chinese houses are practically absent, making the duties against China not very impacting for the car sector. The most affected brands from the duties they could be those Japanese and Koreanwhich have an important share of global sales made in the United States. However, many of the Asian houses have already located part of production in the USA, attenuating the effect of commercial barriers.
