On Thursday 5 February 2026 the world changes: the New Start Treaty (acronym for Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) between the USA and Russia which limited their long-range nuclear arsenals will come to an end.
The treaty, signed in 2010 and renewed in 2021, places a limit of 1550 deployed nuclear warheads (those ready to be used) to each of the two superpowers. However, a disproportionate number, which would lead to the destruction of the Earth. But that’s not all: we must add 3 thousand American and Russian nuclear warheads contained in the depots of their respective arsenals.
What has been done to reduce nuclear weapons
Nuclear arms reduction negotiations between the superpowers began during the Cold War, with the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968 and the Strategic Arms Limitations Treaties (SALT) of the 1970s. Subsequently, agreements such as START and New START were reached, which featured Nixon, Reagan, Gorbachev, Obama and Medvedev.
The initial limits set 5,000 nuclear warheads for each country, but in the mid-1980s Reagan and Gorbachev even went so far as to consider the total destruction of the arsenals, which however was not followed up.
What might happen now that the Treaty comes to an end
Given the current times, the expiry of this treaty increases international tensions, because it could lead to an arms race on the part of both. According to some sources from Moscow, however, it seems that Russia is not interested (at least for the moment) in rearming itself in this sense, also because at the moment it is decidedly ahead of its American rival, with 1549 nuclear warheads installed (intercontinental missiles, bombers and submarines) and another 1830 ready in stock, compared to the 1420 warheads installed and 1114 stored in the USA.
Furthermore, the Kremlin is currently focused on financing the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, according to other analysts, Putin is focusing on the creation of powerful carriers to transport the warheads, such as the Oreshnik hypersonic missile and the Poseidon.
Whatever the truth, according to the Ria Novosti information agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed continuing to respect the limits of the treaty, but Donald Trump – who believes that the Russian leader’s idea is “a good idea” – has hinted that he would prefer to sign a new agreement on nuclear weapons that also involves the third atomic power: China. According to geopolitical analysts, however, a scenario in which the tycoon adopts the Russian president’s proposal seems more likely, at least until the beginning of 2027.
The concept of deterrence and star wars
Having such a quantity of weapons acts as a deterrent, but up to a certain point.
Nuclear deterrence is based on the idea that the possession of nuclear weapons by two or more powers reduces the likelihood of direct conflict, since each side knows that an attack would lead to mutual destruction. This concept, known as “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD), holds that neither of the two nations involved can win a nuclear conflict, and therefore both will refrain from launching attacks. In practice, the fear of a devastating response in the event of aggression prevents the start of a war.
But there is a but: if one of the two superpowers developed a weapon that would make it immune to a nuclear attack, such as the “space shield” proposed by the United States, the principle of deterrence could fail, given that the threat of mutual destruction would no longer be valid.
The space shield in question is a defense system designed to protect the country from nuclear attacks by using armed satellites and orbiting technology to intercept enemy missiles, and it is precisely from this idea that “star wars” are born. Russia has always considered it an offensive threat, which compromises the balance of nuclear deterrence.
Who are the other atomic powers
Although Russia and the United States are definitely in the lead for the atomic duopoly (holding the86% of the world’s newspapers and intercontinental carriers capable of hitting any point on the globe in less than 30 minutes), the scenario is dangerously crowded. China has come very close to its two titanic counterparts, doubling the number of nuclear weapons (currently over 500, expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030) in just a decade.
Next, we find the other actors on the chessboard:
- France (290 publications)
- United Kingdom (170)
- Pakistan (170, but the figure is probably overestimated)
- India (164, but the figure is probably overestimated. The country is modernizing its carriers to ensure that they can cover the entire Chinese territory)
- Israel (claims to have 90, but the number is uncertain: the Jewish government has never officially confirmed or denied its possession of nuclear weapons, but analysts agree on the presence of a sophisticated arsenal ready for use)
- North Korea (claims 30, but number is uncertain)
As recently highlighted by the economist and former Prime Minister Mario Draghihumanity is entering a new era in which the old Cold War patterns are no longer sufficient. The decline of formal limits leaves room for a world in which every State, large or small, could feel legitimized to expand its arsenal.
The challenge of the future will therefore not only be to count the newspapers, but to rebuild a global trust that seems to become increasingly fragile every year.
