With the arrival of Augustthe summer season is in full swing for tourism businesses, a very important sector for the Italian economy and which includes restaurants, bars, and facilities hotels and travel agencies. Starting from the end of 2022 the rate of default of the sector remained stable around 4%highlighting a higher risk of the sector than the average of companies Italian capitals.
CRIF: tourism among the sectors most at risk
Furthermore, the amounts of the financing granted to companies in the sector is slightly decreasing, while on the commercial payments front the number of companies paying is increasing with serious delay. These are some of the main findings that emerged from a study conducted by CRIF which, thanks to its ecosystem of aggregated data, photographs the characteristics of the Italian tourism sector, analyzing in particular the trend of credit in terms of disbursements and riskiness and the performance of companies from the point of view of commercial payments.
“Companies in the sector of tourism have seen significant growth in turnover in recent years, benefiting from the increase in both domestic and foreign tourist flows. Despite this positive phenomenon, the sector is positioned at above-average levels in terms of credit risk, reflecting a highly competitive market context and an uncertain and complex macroeconomic scenario both nationally and globally. The latter will continue to influence the sector’s riskiness in 2024 as wellwith default rates growth expected by the end of the year”, he comments Luca D’AmicoCEO of CRIF Ratings.
default rate above 4%
At the end of 2023, tourism recorded a t4.1% default ace for joint-stock companies, stable compared to the previous period, although among the highest, confirming itself as one of the riskiest sectors (the average rate for Italian joint-stock companies is 2.6%). For the end of 2024, the default rate is estimated by CRIF Ratings to grow further, with an increase of approximately 1.2/1.3 percentage points compared to 2023, proving the persistence of elements of fragility. The outlook takes into account a context of global instability, which continues to be weighed down by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, interest rates still at high levels although slightly decreasing, as well as uncertainties in terms of political and economic trajectory in China and the US elections.
From the analysis for micro-sectors a heterogeneous trend emerges, with the restaurant/bar sector registering the highest credit risk, with a default rate of around 5%.
