Donald Trump has announced a plan that risks opening a new front of tensions between the United States and Europe. If re-elected, he promises to introduce 10% duties on all imports. A decision that aims to directly affect European partners, with the aim of “rebalancing the US trade deficit”. The announcement, made during a rally in Pennsylvania, sparked alarm among European diplomats, worried about theeconomic impact of a potential trade war. Trump considers the protectionism an essential tool to bring production back to the US, but Europe could react with retaliatory measures to defend its economy.
Towards a trade war: the announcement of tariffs
At the rally in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump announced a measure that could mark a new chapter of tension in global economic relations: the imposition of 10% duties on all imports into the United States (such as cars from Mexico, on which he has promised 500% tariffs), including European products, if he is elected president. Trump has stated that he wants to implement the measure through the “Trump reciprocal trade act”, an initiative that aims to rebalance trade between the United States and countries considered “not very reciprocal” such as the European Union.
The Republican candidate expressed without mincing words the resentment towards the EU, accused of block access to products agricultural and American cars on its market, while exporting millions of cars to the United States. This trade “inadequate reciprocity” has been the focus of the attack, supported by the idea that tariffs can force trading partners to increase purchases of US goods, thereby reducing America’s trade deficit and boosting domestic production.
The former president already tried similar approaches during his first term, negotiating with the European Commission and imposing tariffs that hit various economic sectors. If re-elected, he promises an even tougher line.
What would the consequences be for the EU?
The eventuality of 10% duties on European products represents a threat that cannot be underestimated for the economy of the European Union, which sees its own in the United States largest trading partnerwith annual exchanges exceeding one thousand billion euros in goods and services. The EU-US trade balance is historically favorable to Europe, with a surplus amounting to around 156 billion euros in 2023. The protectionism threatened by Trump could therefore hit hard key sectors such as industrial machinery and chemical products, which represent 68% of European exports to the United States or of aluminium, with serious consequences especially for Italy.
According to estimates, a 10% duty imposed on all products imported from the United States would reduce Eurozone GDP by 1% and would cause a negative impact on economies more dependent on exports, such as Germany, whose growth could decline by up to 1.6%. Analysts fear that the trade war announced by Trump could lead to an economic recession, with a consequent reduction of jobs in European companies exporting to the United States.
The European Union (which confirmed tariffs against China) is already evaluating rapid responses, and diplomatic authorities are ready to negotiate exemptions or to respond with retaliatory measures on American products. The priority for Brussels is to avoid a devastating trade war, aiming for dialogue to mitigate the impact on national economies and the millions of jobs supported by transatlantic trade. In a no-mediation scenario, the EU would find itself forced to protect its economic and strategic interests by setting up similar tariff barriers, with the risk of global economic destabilization at an already rather unstable.
