The TV duel between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is capturing the attention of the American media (and not only), also because the distance between the two candidates, in the last two months, has quickly narrowed and now they are running side by side, in what could be an incessant head to head until the next elections in November.
The TV duel will be broadcast tonight by ABC News live, at 9pm American time (3am on Wednesday 11th September in Italy). A debate that could be decisive for the victory in the 2024 Presidential elections and which for now still prices the supremacy of the tycoon, according to reaction of financial markets.
But the situation is characterized by a great uncertainty could contradict history and leave the markets exposed to great volatility.
Polls are neck and neck
For a couple of days now, the gap in the polls has almost disappeared, even according to the margin of error of the statistics. According to the latest poll conducted by the New York Times in collaboration with Sienna, Trump would hold 48% of preferences and Harris 47% of consensus. A difference that falls below the three-point margin of error of the polls and that represents a real reversal for the former American President, since the Democratic candidate entered the race to replace Biden.
The aim of the TV duel is to win the vote of 28% of undecided voterswho believes he “doesn’t know enough” about Harris and “needs to know more.” In any case, 60% of voters expect a turning point compared to Biden’s leadership, but only 25% believe Harris is the right person, against 53% who lean toward Trump.
Wall Street: what performance?
Wall Street closed higher yesterdayafter having closed last Friday the worst week since march 2023in the wake of the poor labor market data and theuncertainties on the macroeconomic frontwhich were not even offset by the expectation of a rate cut by the Fed. But beyond the macroeconomic theme, what would be the market’s reaction to the elections?
The story goes that Election years have always been positive for the US stock market, which has always grown by an average of at least 10%, except in 2000 (dotcom crisis) and in 2008 (Lehman bankruptcy). However, there is too much uncertainty on this occasion, given the closeness of the two candidates in the polls, and the result could be disputed or unclear, leaving the markets held hostage by uncertainty even after the vote. So a certain volatility up to the vote and beyond.
As for the preference between the two candidates, the markets have always performed better after a Republican victory and this time it may not differ from tradition, since the positions on the main topics are clearly opposed: on the taxesTrump favors a reduction and Harris favors an increase in corporate taxes; as for the foreign tradewhile both are suspicious of China’s unfair practices, the Democratic candidate’s position is softer than that of Trump, who has already declared his intention to increase tariffs.
Trump Media Stock Takes Flight
The Trump Media Actionsthe parent company of the former President’s social media platform Truth Social, closed sharply higher yesterday (+5.5%) on Wall Streetafter having archived significant losses in the most recent period.
The stock rose immediately after the opening of trading, reaching a high of $19.06, before closing below the best levels around $18.
Before yesterday’s rally, Trump Media shares were dropped by almost 45% from the maximum reached to mid julyafter the attempted assassination of Trump in Pennsylvania, and of 70% compared to the historical maximum reached in Marchwhen the company went public following a merger with a SPAC.
Bitcoin bets on a Trump victory
The tycoon he definitely has espoused the cause of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, publicly declaring his support for this market. The Donald has publicly declared his support, also participating in industry events.
According to Bernstein, the value of Bitcoin this year could reach $80,000 in the event of a victory by the former American President, who in the past had appeared more sceptical towards this market.
