The bridge over the Strait of Messina will be able to bring profits already from the first year of opening, but the full return of the 13 billion euros necessary to create it will require at least 30 years. This is the esteem of the Study Center of Unimpresawhich analyzed the economic model of the work and the possible repercussions on Sicily and Calabria.
How much it will make the bridge on the tight
According to the study, the bridge could generate revenues between 535 and 800 million euros per year, depending on the traffic scenario.
The model is mainly based on tolls: an average rate of 15 euros per vehicle, with an estimated flow of 25 million vehicles and 36,000 trains per year.
In the basic scenario, road transits would bring about 375 million euros, to which would be added about 160 million from railway traffic, equal to 30% of the total.
In conditions of full logistical operation and with a higher demand, revenues could rise up to 800 million per year.
Immediate profits, but slow return
The report on the bridge on the narrow provides for operating profits of about 100 million euros per year from the first year of opening.
However, the amortization plan is set over 30 years and, even assuming costs under control, in three decades the cumulative value of profits would stop at 3 billion euros, less than a quarter than it will cost us.
To fully recover costs, it will be necessary to count not only on tolls, but also on accessory revenues (such as logistical services and concessions), tax benefits and possible public or European contributions.
The hefetti on Sicily and Calabria
On the macroeconomic level, the direct repercussions would be contained in percentage terms.
For Sicily, with a GDP between 90 and 100 billion euros, the estimated impact is less than 1% per year, i.e. between 0.5 and 0.8 billion euros.
For Calabria, with an economy of about 40 billion, the increase would be between 1.4% and 2.3%.
Significant numbers, but far from the excessive estimates that in the past have spoken of impacts higher than 100% of the Calabrian GDP.
Delays and no payments to suppliers
The document also recalls some critical issues that emerged in other infrastructure works of the South, where the contractual advances, up to 20% of the total value, have sometimes been used for purposes unrelated to the works, causing delays in construction sites and payment difficulties for local suppliers.
For Unimpresa guarantee transparency in contracts, involvement of local businesses and a rigorous control of the execution of the work will be decisive to transform the bridge into a concrete opportunity for the territory.
The real game is played on freight traffic
The vice president of Unimpresa Giuseppe Spadafora underlines that the success of the bridge over the Strait will not be linked to the number of inhabitants of Sicily and Calabria, but to the amount of goods that will cross the bridge.
To make the infrastructure profitable in the long run, an integrated logistical ecosystem will be needed:
- modernized and competitive ports;
- efficient intermodal terminals;
- high -capacity railway connections;
- distribution platforms connected to the main European guidelines.
Without a strategy of this type, he warns the Study Centerthe bridge risks remaining a work of great engineering value but with prevailing passengers, unable to generate those commercial flows essential to justify the investment.
