One closes earnings week for the real estate sector with the attention of investors always turned to the central banks, after the new breath of fresh air coming from the ECB, last eighth, when it decided for another cut of 25 basis points in the reference rate, as everyone they were waiting. “2024 is a transition year for inflation in the euro area, in which components linked to past events are still operating,” said the ECB chief economist, Philip Lane in his speech at an inflation conference organized by the Cleveland Federal Reserve, adding that analysis of underlying inflation indicates that the disinflationary process is well underway and inflation is expected to return to the target level during 2025.” Now the focus shifts to the meeting at the beginning of November of the Federal Reservefrom which it is expected less aggression by the institution led by Jerome Powell, after the positive data on the American economy and the comments of some central bankers. From the Beige Book of the American central bank, the report on the state of the US economy which will form the basis for the next monetary policy decisions, found that overall, economic activity in the United States has “remained virtually unchanged in almost all districts since the beginning of September”.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector experienced a week of modest gains in the Milanese market, while the performance at a European level shows a decline in the index Stoxx 600 Real Estate by 0.8%. In Italy, the index FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate brings home an increase of approximately 1.6%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, there was another negative week for Aedes which dropped six percentage points. On the upside, it still did well, however, Remediation which flies by 8%. In rallying too Living IN +6.3% e Brioschi +4.3%.
Macroeconomic data
From the latest ECB consumer survey on growth and inflation prospectsit was found that expectations for house price growth over the next 12 months increased slightly, while mortgage interest rate expectations for the next 12 months decreased slightly.
Give it to him USA the usual ones have arrived numbers on mortgage applicationswhich in the week to 18 October, showed a drop in requests of 6.7%, after -17% in the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests fell by 8.5%, while that relating to new applications fell by 5.1%. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicated that 30-year mortgage rates remained stable at 6.52%.
Sales of new homes are growing again in the United States, in September. The data showed an increase of 4.1% to 738 thousand units compared to the 709 thousand units in August (figure revised from 716 thousand) and against the 719 thousand units estimated by the consensus. This was announced by the United States Census Bureau.
Sector studies
The market regains share thanks to green houses. The number of real estate sales recovers in the central part of 2024 and will close the year practically at the same levels as the previous one, with 710 thousand transactions. The trend of the prices (+2.6%), which is partly affected by the trend of new homes. Rentals, however, will drop by 2.5% due to the low supply, but this factor will also lead to an increase in the amount of rent. These are the predictions that the Italian Federation of Business Agents Mediators (FIMAA) in the latest survey on the residential real estate market on the performance recorded in the second quarter of 2024 and on the forecasts for the last part of the year.
The current year looms as a time of turning point for green mortgageswho have achieved a share greater than 10% on the total disbursements. A percentage that expresses the progressive diffusion of this financial instrument, which incentivises both the purchase of class A and B units and renovations to improve the energy efficiency of the property by at least 30%, or with a “leap” of at least two energy classes. Looking only at a few years ago, in 2020 green mortgages reached just 3% of the total, rising to 6.5% in 2023: a trend of continuous expansion which led to an incidence of 10% in 2024, with a peak of 16% reached last August. This is the photograph returned byQualis Credit Risk Observatorywhich attributes this growth to the growing sensitivity towards environmental sustainability issues but also to the commitment of financial institutions to align their strategies with the goals dictated by the European Green Deal.
