THE duties by Donald Trump They will hit Europe on April 2nd. Italy has a very close commercial relationship with the USA, which represent a very important partner. Not all regions However, they depend directly on the USA. Those of the North tend to be less exposed, also thanks to the geographical proximity to the European partners.
Those of the South, according to a study by Cgia di Mestreon the other hand, are dangerously dependent on the United States, according to the diversification index calculated in the latest report on duties and exports.
How Italian exports went in 2024
The CGIA report calculates first of all the trend of Italian exports. In 2024, the value of the goods that left our country was to 623.5 billion eurosdown 0.4% compared to 2023
The first exporting region ever, as confirmed also by the data Istat who have drawn up the ranking of the regions that export most, remains the Lombardy, with 163.9 billion euros. It is an almost double figure compared to the second classified, Emilia-Romagna (83 billion). Third Veneto to 80.1 billion.
To underline the growth of the Tuscany, who increased his exports by 13% and exceeded the ranking the Piedmont weighed down by the automotive crisis. The reason for this shot is above all the development of the pharmaceutical sector, among those in greater expansion in recent years in Italy.
What is the diversification index
The CGIA report then stresses that the South is weakened again, after the last years of economic growth. Export is down about 5.4% in the macro area, but this is not the only problem. Often, in fact, the regions of the South lack diversification in their exports.
THE’diversification index Calculate the exposure to the risks of the export of a region, taking into account how many products and how many different buyers the companies have. The less they are, the higher the index in percentage, the more the risk is raised that the economy of the entire area is endangered by a single event.
The recent example that highlights this problem are 25% duties on steel and aluminum that Donald Trump has promised to impose on Europe. A region that is based on the production of these assets and which is very close to the USA will be very damaged by this decision.
The ranking of the regions most exposed to duties
Taking into account this data, the CGIA has drawn up one classification of the regions most at risk. In the first places, those of the South stand out above all.
- Sardinia, 95.6%;
- Molise, 86.9%;
- Sicily, 85.0%;
- Valle d’Aosta, 81.8%;
- Basilicata, 80.9%;
- Calabria, 78.0%;
- Campania, 71.9%;
- Lazio, 71.0%;
- Tuscany, 68.5%;
- Friuli-Venezia Giulia, 63.1%.
What are the regions Salvo from Trump
On the other hand, there are the regions that have developed an export network more diversified and therefore they fear less the impact of Trump’s duties:
- Lombardy, 43.0%;
- Veneto, 46.8%;
- Puglia, 49.8%;
- Trentino-Alto Adige, 51.1%;
- Emilia-Romagna, 53.9%;
- Piedmont, 54.8%;
- Marche, 55.7%;
- Umbria, 61.9%;
- Liguria, 61.9%;
- Abruzzo, 62.7%.
