Positive week for the stock markets, including Piazza Affari, with investors guided by sentiment on developments in the Middle East. After announcements and denials on possible agreements between the US and Iran that have followed each other throughout the week, and some mutual attacks that have raised fears of a new escalation, the parties seem close to an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start further talks aimed at resolving the nuclear issue. However, American President Donald Trump did not appear so convinced and took “a few days” to think about it before making a “final decision”.
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding – according to what Axios writes – would guarantee free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran would have to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days. A news confirmed by Bessent, who confirmed that Oman has no intention of imposing tolls on ships transiting the Strait.
Oil down 10%
The optimism about a resolution of the crisis in Hormuz has impacted the price of oil which is heading towards a weekly loss of around 10% (the worst weekly drop since the beginning of April) with Brent around 90 dollars and WTI around 86.5 dollars. ING analysts pointed out that “the market has already increasingly priced in a resolution this week” and that “further significant declines are likely limited, particularly in the early stages of the ceasefire.” However they added that “the market is more vulnerable now than before the war, given the significant declines in inventories over the past three months.”
Macro data
The first major indications of the impact of the war in the Middle East on inflation arrived this week. In the US, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which is a measure of inflation, rose 3.8% year-on-year in the 12 months to April, marking the strongest increase since May 2023. The March figure was confirmed at 3.5%. The result is in line with economists’ forecasts who expected an increase of 3.8% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, PCE rose 0.4% in April, following a 0.7% increase in March. However, German inflation surprisingly slowed down in May. According to the preliminary estimate published by Destatis, consumer prices in Germany recorded a drop of 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared to +0.6% in the previous month (expectations were for a +0.1%). On an annual basis, the change in prices is indicated at +2.6%, after the +2.9% of the previous month, lower than the expectation of +2.9%.
Stock markets are taking a breather today
In the European stock market scenario, Frankfurt appears flat, recording a +0.05%, in line with London which shaves 0.16%, and a cautious trend for Paris, which shows a performance of -0.07%. Piazza Affari ends the day with a fractional gain on the FTSE MIB of 0.42%; along the same lines, the FTSE Italia All-Share advances fractionally, reaching 52,721 points. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap (+0.22%) is just above parity; with a similar direction, fractional gains for the FTSE Italia Star (+0.65%).
Among the best large-cap Italian shares, positive performance for Nexi, which advanced by a discreet +2.03%. Banca Mediolanum was well bought, marking a strong increase of 1.98%. Unicredit advances by 1.82%. Fineco moves in positive territory, showing an increase of 1.75%.
The strongest sales, however, hit Amplifon, which ended trading at -2.13%. Sells on Stellantis, which recorded a decline of 1.90%. Negative session for Avio, which showed a loss of 1.80%. Fincantieri is under pressure, suffering a decline of 1.78%.
