According to preliminary estimates released by Istat, in May 2026 the national consumer price index marks an increase of 0.4% compared to April and 3.2% on an annual basis. It is a clear acceleration compared to the +2.7% recorded the previous month.
Pushing inflation upwards are mainly the prices of energy goods, transport-related services and recreational, cultural and personal care services. Istat underlines that the acceleration “is essentially affected by the tensions on the prices of unregulated energy goods, transport-related services and recreational, cultural and personal care services”.
Food goods
A brake on the general dynamics instead comes from food prices. The rate of change in food, home and personal care goods remains stable at +2.3%. In particular, high purchase frequency products rose slightly from +4.2% to +4.5%.
On the economic side (compared to April), the general index is mainly affected by:
- the increase in prices of recreational and cultural services (+1.4%), unprocessed food (+0.6%) and energy (+0.5%);
- the decrease in prices of transport services (-0.5%)
The “underlying inflation”, which excludes energy and fresh foods (vegetables, fruit, eggs, fresh milk, etc.), accelerates from +1.6% in April to +1.8% in May. If only energy goods are excluded, the rate rises from +1.9% to +2.1%.
The effects of inflation on families
An increase that Massimiliano Dona defines as “stellar” and which, according to the association, is causing:
devastating effects which are causing a real blow equal, for a couple with two children, to an overall increase in the cost of living of 1191 euros on an annual basis. They cost 269 euros for food products and non-alcoholic drinks alone, 286 for the shopping cart, 328 euros for transport, 251 euros for housing, electricity and gas. For a couple with 1 child, the total additional annual expense is 1094 euros. On average, for a family the price is 843 euros, 185 for food and drink.
Below, here is a table with the annual increases by family type and expenditure divisions (values in euros) on trend inflation in May, based on Istat data processed by the UNC.
| EXPENDITURE DIVISIONS | Average family | Couple with 2 children | Couple with 1 child | Annual inflation in May |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food products and non-alcoholic drinks | 185 | 269 | 236 | +2.9 |
| Alcoholic drinks, tobacco and drugs | 14 | 17 | 18 | +2.6 |
| Clothing and footwear | 10 | 18 | 14 | +0.8 |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | 233 | 251 | 249 | +5.8 |
| Furnishings, appliances for domestic use and current home maintenance | 22 | 30 | 27 | +1.6 |
| Healthcare | 15 | 18 | 18 | +1.1 |
| Transport | 200 | 328 | 305 | +5.6 |
| Information and communication | -16 | -24 | -22 | -1.9 |
| Recreation, sport and culture | 16 | 28 | 24 | +1.3 |
| Education services | 4 | 10 | 6 | +1.7 |
| Restaurant services and accommodation services | 68 | 119 | 95 | +3.5 |
| Financial and insurance services | 36 | 53 | 50 | +4.1 |
| Personal assistance, social protection and various goods and services | 56 | 74 | 75 | +3.5 |
| TOTAL ANNUAL PRICE INCREASE | 842 | 1191 | 1094 | +3.2 |
| SHOPPING CART | 198 | 286 | 252 | +2.3 |
Panetta’s alarm
Just as inflation in May reaches +3.2%, the real alarm comes from the scenarios outlined by Fabio Panetta, governor of Bank of Italy, who states:
in the most unfavorable scenarios, a prolongation of the conflict and further damage to the Gulf’s energy infrastructure could subtract a total percentage point from growth in the two-year period 2026-27. Inflation could peak above 6 percent and, if left unchecked, remain above target for a long time.
A shock of this magnitude would risk taking root in the EU’s expectations, triggering “a spiral between prices and wages” that Panetta considers “harmful and costly to eliminate”. A reading that could lead to an almost inevitable increase in rates at the ECB’s June meeting.
