The placement of the BTP Italia Sì, the new government bond indexed to national inflation and reserved exclusively for the retail market, starts today, after the MEF announced the minimum guaranteed annual rate on Friday. The placement is open from Monday 15th to Friday 19th June 2026 (unless early closure).
The characteristics
The minimum guaranteed annual rate of the first issue of the new BTP Italia Sì has been set at 1.6%. To calculate the overall value of the coupons, the national inflation rate (FOI Index, without tobacco – Consumer price index for families of workers and employees, net of tobacco) recorded in the reference period must therefore be added to this minimum rate, guaranteed even in the event of deflation.
In fact, the BTP Italia Sì provides semi-annual coupons linked to the national inflation rate as well as an extra final premium of 0.6% on the subscribed capital reserved for those who purchase it on the days of issue and hold it until maturity.
At the end of the placement, the minimum guaranteed rate may be confirmed or revised upwards, based on market conditions. Subscription to the BTP Italia Sì is reserved only for individual savers and similar; There will be no caps or divisions, so all applications received during the placement period will be fully satisfied.
How to buy
The ISIN code of the security necessary to identify it and purchase it during the placement period is IT0005713539.
It is possible to buy BTP Italia Sì, not only in a bank or at the post office, but also online through your home banking (with trading function enabled). The issue will take place on the MOT (the Electronic Market of Government Bonds and Securities of the Italian Stock Exchange) through Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit – Dealer of the operation – and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Banco BPM – Codealer of the operation. The settlement date of all executed purchase orders is unique and coincides with the enjoyment date.
The BTP Italia Sì is purchased at par for amounts starting from the minimum lot of 1,000 euros, during the placement days and can be sold in whole or in part before its maturity, without constraints and at market conditions, always for minimum lots of 1,000 nominal euros. The nominal subscribed capital is guaranteed upon maturity.
The context
The timing of the issue is not random. The BTP Italia Sì arrives in a macroeconomic context that makes it particularly relevant. Istat certified that in May 2026 national inflation accelerated to 3.2% on an annual basis, from 2.7% in April, driven above all by the prices of energy goods. Acquired inflation for the whole of 2026 is already at 2.6%, while underlying inflation, which excludes the most volatile components, has risen to 1.6%.
On the European front, on June 11 the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2023, explicitly citing inflationary pressures generated by conflict in the Middle East. In the projections of Eurosystem experts, overall inflation in the euro area would stand on average at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, with upward risks for inflation and downward risks for growth. The new projections of the Bank of Italy published on Friday 12 June go in the same direction: consumer prices are increasing by 3.1% on average in 2026, destined to fall towards 2% in the following two years; compared to the forecasts published in April, inflation estimates are higher by 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 0.2 in 2027.
Convenience
The real question, the one that every saver asks himself, is: is it worth it? The answer depends on a key number: breakeven inflation, i.e. that average level of future inflation that makes the yield of the BTP Italia Sì equivalent to a fixed rate BTP of similar duration. According to Intesa Sanpaolo calculations, this value stands at 1.56%, approximately 30 basis points below the five-year inflation currently priced by the market at 1.88%. Adhoc SCF, in an independent analysis, estimates the breakeven slightly lower, around 1.47% (including the loyalty bonus in the calculation). In both cases, the message is the same: if average inflation over the next five years remains above this threshold – a hypothesis that the available projections strongly support, given that inflation in 2026 alone is already at 2.6% – the BTP Italia Sì beats the fixed rate BTP of similar maturity in terms of total return. The expected return, under the central inflation assumptions, is 3.4-3.6%, compared to 3.16% of the 3.15% BTP expiring 01/06/2031 (at Friday’s close).
