Commerzbank and Unicredit I am always closer, despite the entrance on the scene of Deutsche Bankwhich would aim at an all-German merger between the first and second banks in the country, on the model of what happened in Switzerland between UBS and Credit Suisse. After purchasing a stake in recent days, the Institute led by Andrea Orcel, which has already risen to 9% of Commerzbank’s capital, would have asked the ECB for permission to increase to 30% of the capital.
Berlin wants out
The German government confirmed in recent days the capital exit plan of Commerzbank, with a “transparent, non-discriminatory and market-friendly” process.
The entrance of the government in the bank had occurred way back in 2008, when the financial crisis had brought several European banks to their knees, urging their governments to rescue those of systemic importance to protect the stability of the financial system. An investment that cost Berlin over 18 billion euros.
But now it is the time has come to privatizeas happened for Montepaschi, because the bank became profitable again, thanks also to the high interest rates applied by the ECB which increased the banks’ core revenues and profits.
Unicredit’s request to increase to 30%
In the meantime, Unicredit should submit the authorization request to the ECB in the next few days For rise up to 30% of Commerzbank, the so-called OPA threshold. At that point – he writes the messenger – the Eurotower will have 60 days time to give consent, unless you decide to ask for clarification on the methods of acquisition and on the business combination.
The acceleration of Unicredit, which is already present in Germany with HVB, would also be aimed at to slow down Deutsche Bank’s advance.
The Swiss model
Yesterday’s news was that Deutsche Bank would be willing to to acquire all or part of the remaining 12% share in the hands of the German government, CEO Christian Sewing is thus trying to hinder Unicredit’s advance defend the domestic market.
A model very similar to the one created in Switzerland with the aggregation between UBS and Credit Suisse, but in this case the push was offered by the financial difficulties of the second Swiss bank. Deutsche Bank instead would be trying only to protect the internal market, creating a German champion.
The Group had already started negotiations in 2019 with the top management of Commerzbank, but the project was shelved due to theopposition from the unionswho feared mass layoffs. but the dossier remains hot. and testifies that the banking risk is now extending to the whole EU.
What analysts think
For Equita, a possible acquisition of Commerzbank by UniCredit is “a challenging operation, but with room for value creation“. And among the various scenarios that of the business combination would also be the most likely, while a relaunch by other players seems unlikely. According to analysts, Unicredit could reach pay a 40% premium to take over control of the German bank.
Barclays instead believes that UniCredit would be able to pay Commerzbank (with a 30% bonus on the Commerzbank share price of September 10) up to 45% cash. Furthermore, the bank would be able to maintain its current distribution policy of dividends even after a possible merger with Commerzbank, since the logic of the agreement is to “create value for shareholders”.
